Doll, Toy, and Game Manufacturing (U.S.) — NAICS 33993

A NAICS industry (5-digit) rollup. This page is a short pass-through: at this level of the taxonomy the industry is effectively identical to its single child. For the full story, read the child primer for NAICS 339930.

1. Overview

NAICS 33993 is the U.S. business of making the physical things people play with — dolls and action figures, plush animals, board games and puzzles, building sets, toy vehicles, hobby and craft kits, and children's ride-on toys. It is a small U.S. manufacturing footprint attached to a very large U.S. consumer market, because roughly four out of five toys sold in America are made overseas, mostly in China [1][2].

The investor takeaway is that value in "toys" sits in brands and intellectual property (IP) — Barbie, Hot Wheels, LEGO, Pokémon, Magic: The Gathering — rather than in owning factories. The domestic factory base counted here is a fragmented niche; the money is made by companies that design and license IP and contract production abroad.

2. What's inside — and why this level equals its one child

A NAICS "industry" at the 5-digit level can contain several 6-digit national industries. This one does not: NAICS 33993 contains exactly one child, 339930 — Doll, Toy, and Game Manufacturing. The 5-digit code and the 6-digit code cover the same establishments, the same activities, and (as shown below) the same federal statistics. Nothing is added or removed at this level.

Because of that, this page is deliberately short. Everything substantive — the detailed scope and exclusions (physical games only, not video-game software; no sporting goods, metal bicycles, playground equipment, or arcade machines, each of which sits in a named adjacent code), the company-by-company investable universe, the licensing-and-royalty economics, demand drivers, safety and tariff regulation, and consolidation — lives in the 339930 primer. Read that page for the full treatment [3].

3. Size (this level's rollup figures)

Because there is one child, this level's totals are that child's totals. Our ground-truth federal statistics for NAICS 33993:

Two of those rows now come with a caveat the earlier version of this page did not carry. First, receipts are a range, not a point: the 2022 Economic Census puts shipments at about $1.75 billion, while the newer Annual Integrated Economic Survey (AIES) for 2023 reports $1.61 billion for domestic employer firms [5][6]. The surveys differ in scope and vintage; we report both rather than choose. Second, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), the standard market-concentration measure, is suppressed in the federal data, so we report no value for it [5].

The establishment base is numerically tiny at the bottom end: of 503 establishments counted in 2022, 304 had fewer than five employees, and only eight employed 100 or more [7]. For context on how small "small" is here, the Small Business Administration's size standard for this code is 700 employees — more than every U.S. establishment in it [8].

Undercount caveat (central to this industry). These figures capture only what is physically manufactured in the United States. They dramatically understate the U.S. toy economy for two reasons: roughly 78–80% of toys sold in America are imported (overwhelmingly Chinese, on the order of $17.7 billion of toy imports in a recent year), and the giant U.S. brand owners outsource nearly all production abroad, so their sales flow through wholesale, import, design, and management channels classified outside this code [1][2]. For scale, the U.S. retail toy market is put at roughly $45.6 billion in 2025, of which the directly tracked Circana panel captured $30.3 billion — an estimated 68% [9]. Even the tracked panel alone is about seventeen times the top of this code's $1.61–1.75 billion of domestic shipments. Read NAICS 33993 as "toys actually made in the USA," not as the size of the American toy business.

4. Investable universe (where value concentrates)

With a single child, there is no cross-child allocation to make here — the entire investable universe is the one described in the 339930 primer [3]. In brief: the listed pure-plays are few and concentrated in two U.S. names, and the market values them on IP mix rather than revenue. Hasbro (HAS, Nasdaq) carries a market value of about $11.5 billion, powered by its Wizards of the Coast and Digital Gaming segment (~$2.19 billion of FY2025 revenue at a 46.0% operating margin), while Mattel (MAT, Nasdaq) sells considerably more (FY2025 net sales $5.35 billion) yet is valued near $4.0 billion [10][11][12]. Smaller, more volatile plays are Funko (FNKO), JAKKS Pacific (JAKK, FY2025 sales $571 million), and Build-A-Bear (BBW); Spin Master (TOY, ~$1.6 billion) trades in Toronto [12][13][14].

Several of the largest and most profitable players are private or family-owned and not directly purchasable on U.S. exchanges: LEGO — the world's largest toy company, with DKK 83.5 billion of 2025 revenue and DKK 22.0 billion of operating profit, a scale no listed pure-play approaches [15] — plus MGA Entertainment, Ravensburger, Playmobil, and The Pokémon Company. Indirect listed routes into that private tier exist but are diluted: Berkshire Hathaway houses Squishmallows owner Jazwares [16], and Bandai Namco, Nintendo (Japan), and VTech (Hong Kong) offer toy-plus-gaming exposure on foreign exchanges [3]. See 339930 for the full company table [3].

5. How the money works

Identical to the child. Owners make money by owning or licensing IP and monetizing it across as many physical products, channels, and years as possible — not by running efficient factories. Evergreen owned brands (Barbie, Hot Wheels, Monopoly, Magic: The Gathering) are the highest-value model because they carry no royalty leakage; licensed IP (Disney, Marvel, Pokémon) pays royalties in the low-to-mid-teens percent of wholesale — Funko's average rate ran 17.4% in 2025 — and licensed toys are now about 37% of the global toy market, the highest share on record [13][17].

The margin spread across the listed set is the clearest evidence that IP ownership, not manufacturing skill, sets returns: Hasbro's Wizards of the Coast earned a 46.0% operating margin in 2025, Mattel's gross margin was 48.7% (down from 50.8%), and license-heavy JAKKS — paying 16.2% of sales in royalties — managed a 32.4% gross margin and just a 2.5% operating margin [10][11][14]. Manufacturing is asset-light and outsourced, so brand owners carry little factory capital but bear inventory, freight, and tariff risk. Two structural features apply to all of them: retail concentration (Mattel's three largest customers — Walmart, Target, and Amazon — were 42% of its 2025 global sales [10]) and seasonality (Funko booked 58% of 2025 sales in the third and fourth quarters [13]). For the small domestic makers actually inside this code, the economics are classic light manufacturing — capacity utilization, input costs (plastic resin, plush textiles, paperboard), labor, and a "Made in USA" price premium. Full detail is in the 339930 primer [3].

6. Demand drivers

Same as the child level [3]: kidults (adults buying toys for themselves — roughly a quarter to nearly a third of U.S. toy dollars, well over $9 billion a year, with purchases for recipients aged 18 and older reaching $1.8 billion in the first quarter of 2025 alone, up 12% year over year) [17][18]; collectibles and pop-culture licensing (collectible-toy sales grew 33% and licensed-toy sales 14% through the first nine months of 2025; Pokémon crossed ~$2.5 billion in U.S. sales for the year, up 87%) [9][19]; entertainment tie-ins (films, streaming, video-game franchises); games and puzzles (the strongest "super category," ~$4.9 billion in the U.S. in 2025, up 37%) [9]; and nostalgia and screen-free play positioning.

The child research adds a point this page previously missed: the 2025 recovery was narrow, not broad. Games and puzzles (+37%), building sets (+15%), and explorative and other toys (+20%) together generated 92% of market growth, while dolls fell 7%, outdoor and sports toys 6%, and plush 8% [9]. Working against the whole category is demographics: provisional U.S. births fell 1% to 3,606,400 in 2025 and the general fertility rate, at 53.1 per 1,000 women aged 15–44, sits 23% below its 2007 level — a structural headwind for the infant and preschool core [20].

7. Regulation

Unchanged in shape from the child [3], but with sharper dates. Toys face one of the stricter U.S. consumer-product regimes, overseen by the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC). The Consumer Product Safety Improvement Act of 2008 (CPSIA) makes safety standard ASTM F963 (from standards body ASTM International) mandatory; the current version, ASTM F963-23, is incorporated through 16 CFR Part 1250 and applies to toys manufactured after April 20, 2024. Federal law caps lead at 100 parts per million (ppm) in children's products and bans several phthalate plasticizers above 0.1% concentration, and children's toys require third-party testing at a CPSC-accepted lab plus a Children's Product Certificate (CPC) [21]. New since the last version of this page: beginning July 8, 2026, importers of most regulated consumer products must file certificate data electronically with Customs and Border Protection — a compliance cost that falls hardest on the small makers who dominate this code [22].

The dominant near-term policy variable remains tariffs. Because production is concentrated in China, U.S. trade policy hits this industry directly: rates spiked as high as 145% in early 2025 before de-escalating [1]; as of early 2026 plush and similar toys faced a combined rate near 17.5% (a 7.5% Section 301 duty plus a 10% Section 122 tariff) whose legal footing is unsettled — the Court of International Trade ruled the Section 122 tariff unlawful in May 2026, and it remains in force only under a Federal Circuit stay pending appeal [23]. Further Section 301 measures took effect July 24, 2026, including a 12.5% rate on covered products from China, Hong Kong, and Vietnam, with applicability product-specific by tariff code [24]. See 339930 for the tariff detail [3].

8. Consolidation

Same dynamics as the child [3]. At the brand level the market is far more concentrated than the domestic-manufacturing CR4 of 45.5% suggests, because LEGO, Mattel, Hasbro, Bandai Namco, and Pokémon anchor a global top tier whose sales largely sit outside this manufacturing code [5][9]. Consolidation runs through brand roll-ups (Spin Master's US$950 million acquisition of Melissa & Doug, closed January 2024) [25] and a vertical pivot into higher-margin gaming — Hasbro bought entertainment studio eOne in 2019, divested the film and TV business in 2023, and in 2025 wrote down $1.02 billion of goodwill in its Consumer Products segment while its Wizards of the Coast gaming arm carried the profits [11]. The child also documents pressure from the other direction: private-label and value toys at mass retailers, and direct-from-China e-commerce channels undercutting branded price points [3].

9. Risks

The child's risk set applies without change [3]: extreme tariff and supply-chain concentration in China, where diversification to Vietnam, India, Indonesia, and Mexico is real but slow and generally more expensive [1][23][24]; hit-driven volatility and inventory risk (toys behave like fashion); retail concentration among Walmart, Target, and Amazon [10]; demographic drag from falling birth rates [20]; screen and attention competition; seasonality (heavy holiday/Q4 weighting) [13]; and input and freight cost swings. The child adds one the parent previously omitted: product-safety and compliance risk, where recalls carry destruction, replacement, retailer-penalty, and franchise costs, and the July 2026 eFiling requirement raises the operational cost of weak supplier traceability [22]. See 339930 for how each plays out [3].

10. How to invest & outlook

No allocation decision is unique to this level — it is the same as investing in NAICS 339930 [3]. Public-market routes center on Hasbro (HAS) and Mattel (MAT), which now represent two distinct bets rather than one: Hasbro is priced as a high-margin gaming and IP story, Mattel as a brand-and-licensing turnaround anchored by Barbie and Hot Wheels, and the valuation gap between them (~$11.5 billion versus ~$4.0 billion, on smaller revenue) is the market's verdict on that difference [10][11][12]. Funko (FNKO), JAKKS (JAKK), and Build-A-Bear (BBW) are the smaller plays, with Spin Master (TOY) in Toronto; there is no large dedicated U.S. "toy" exchange-traded fund (ETF), so broad exposure comes bundled inside consumer-discretionary funds. Private-market routes enter through smaller brand and licensing acquisitions (the Spin Master/Melissa & Doug playbook) [25], crowdfunded tabletop games, and the collectibles secondary market [17]. The 2026 outlook turns on tariff resolution [23][24] and the durability of the kidult/collectibles/licensing boom [17][18][19]; the industry returned to growth in 2025 (+6%) after two down years, but that growth was concentrated in games, building sets, and collectibles while dolls, plush, and outdoor toys declined — momentum favors owners of evergreen IP and high-margin gaming over undifferentiated physical-toy makers [9]. Full outlook in the 339930 primer [3].

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Sources

1. CNN Business. "145% tariffs on China are clobbering the toy industry," 2025 — ~$17.7B toy imports, ~75% from China; 145% peak tariff. https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/12/economy/toy-prices-us-china-tariffs
2. Al Jazeera. "What percentage of US toys and Christmas goods are imported from China?" 2025 — USITC data, ~78.3% of toy imports from China; ~80% of toys sold in U.S. made in China. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/5/11/what-percentage-of-us-toys-and-christmas-goods-are-imported-from-china
3. Histometrics. Primer — NAICS 339930, Doll, Toy, and Game Manufacturing (child industry; full detail). Internal.
4. U.S. Census Bureau. County Business Patterns (CBP), 2023 — establishments, employment, and payroll for NAICS 33993/339930. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/cbp.html
5. U.S. Census Bureau. 2022 Economic Census — Concentration of Largest Firms (EC2231SG3), NAICS 339930 — firms, receipts, and CR4/CR8/CR20/CR50 shares (HHI suppressed). https://data.census.gov/
6. U.S. Census Bureau. Annual Integrated Economic Survey (AIES), 2023 — $1.61B sales/shipments/revenue for domestic employer firms. https://data.census.gov/table/AIESBASICTIMESERIES.AIES31BASIC01?q=339930%3A+Doll%2C+toy%2C+and+game+manufacturing
7. U.S. Census Bureau. County Business Patterns (CBP), 2022 — establishment size distribution: 503 establishments, 304 with <5 employees, 5 with 100–249, 3 with 250–499. https://data.census.gov/table?codeset=naics~339930&q=CBP2022.CB2200CBP
8. U.S. Small Business Administration. Table of Small Business Size Standards Matched to NAICS Codes, 2023 — 339930 size standard of 700 employees. https://www.sba.gov/document/support-table-size-standards
9. The Toy Association / Circana. "U.S. Toy Industry Returns to Growth in 2025," 2026 — total market ~$45.6B, tracked panel $30.3B (+6%), Games/Puzzles ~$4.9B (+37%), Pokémon ~$2.5B (+87%); category growth and decline breakdown. https://www.toyassociation.org/PressRoom2/News/2026-News/us-toy-industry-returns-to-growth-in-2025-circana-reports.aspx
10. Mattel, Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal year 2025 — net sales $5.35B, gross margin 48.7% (from 50.8%), customer concentration (Walmart, Target, Amazon = 42% of global sales). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63276/000162828026010716/mat-20251231.htm
11. Hasbro, Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal year 2025 — Wizards of the Coast & Digital Gaming $2.19B at 46.0% operating margin; Consumer Products $2.44B with $1.02B goodwill impairment; eOne acquisition/divestiture. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/46080/000004608026000011/has-20251228.htm
12. CompaniesMarketCap. Market capitalizations (July 2026) — Hasbro ~$11.5B, Mattel ~$4.0B, Spin Master ~$1.6B. https://companiesmarketcap.com/hasbro/marketcap/
13. Funko, Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal year 2025 — gross margin 38.7%, average royalty rate 17.4%, 58% of sales in Q3/Q4. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1704711/000170471126000020/fnko-20251231.htm
14. JAKKS Pacific, Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal year 2025 — sales $571M, royalties 16.2% of sales, gross margin 32.4%, operating margin 2.5%. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1009829/000118518526000723/jakk10k123125.htm
15. The LEGO Group. "The LEGO Group Delivers Record Results in 2025," Mar 2026 — DKK 83.5B revenue, DKK 22.0B operating profit. https://www.lego.com/en-gb/aboutus/news/2026/march/the-lego-group-delivers-record-results-in-2025-driven-by-strong-brand-and-innovative-portfolio
16. Jazwares. Company profile — owned within Berkshire Hathaway; Squishmallows brand. https://jazwares.com/
17. License Global / Licensing International / Circana. Kidults, collectibles, and licensing data, 2025 — adults ~25–30% of U.S. toy sales (>$9B); licensed toys ~37% of global market. https://www.licenseglobal.com/toys-games/kidults-will-continue-to-drive-licensed-toy-sales-in-2025
18. Circana. "Toy Industry US Sales Grow in Early 2025" — adult recipients (18+) $1.8B in Q1 2025, +12% year-over-year. https://www.circana.com/post/toy-industry-us-sales-grow-in-early-2025
19. Circana. "U.S. Toy Industry Grows Sales Through the Third Quarter," 2025 — collectibles +33%, licensed toys +14% through Q3 2025. https://www.circana.com/post/us-toy-industry-grows-sales-through-the-third-quarter-circana-reports
20. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Provisional births for 2025 — 3,606,400 births (−1%), fertility rate 53.1 per 1,000 (−1%, −23% vs 2007). https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr043.pdf
21. U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission. Toy Safety — CPSIA, ASTM F963-23, lead (100 ppm) and phthalate (0.1%) limits, third-party testing and CPC requirements. https://www.cpsc.gov/FAQ/Toy-Safety; https://www.cpsc.gov/Business--Manufacturing/Business-Education/Toy-Safety
22. U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission. Certificates and eFiling guidance — July 8, 2026 electronic filing requirement for importers. https://www.cpsc.gov/Business--Manufacturing/Business-Education/Business-Guidance/Certificates
23. Plush Toys Factory / The Toy Association. "US–China Tariffs on Plush Toys: 2026 B2B Guide" — combined ~17.5% (7.5% Section 301 + 10% Section 122), CIT ruling and Federal Circuit stay. https://plushtoys-factory.com/us-china-tariffs-plush-toys-b2b-guide-2026/
24. The Toy Association. "Tariff Update: New Section 301 Tariffs Take Effect," Jul 2026 — 12.5% rate on covered products from China, Hong Kong, and Vietnam effective July 24, 2026. https://www.toyassociation.org/PressRoom2/News/2026-News/tariff-update-new-section-301-tariffs-take-effect.aspx
25. Spin Master Corp. "Spin Master Completes Acquisition of Melissa & Doug," Jan 2, 2024 — US$950M (~C$1.2B). https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/spin-master-completes-acquisition-of-melissa--doug-a-trusted-brand-in-early-childhood-play-302024756.html