Mining and Oil and Gas Field Machinery Manufacturing (U.S.) — An Investor's Primer

NAICS 2022 code 33313 — a five-digit industry in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), the U.S. government's standard for grouping businesses. It contains two child industries: 333131 (Mining Machinery) and 333132 (Oil and Gas Field Machinery).

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1. Overview

This industry makes the heavy iron that gets minerals, oil, and gas out of the ground. It splits cleanly into two very different businesses that federal statisticians group together because they share the same DNA: both are capital-goods makers whose customers are resource extractors, both live and die by commodity prices, and both earn their most durable profits not on the first sale but on the decades of parts, wear components, and service that follow.

The two halves are the "picks and shovels" of extraction. One half — 333131 — builds the underground cutters, rock drills, and ore-crushing gear used to mine metals and coal. The other — 333132, nearly three times larger — builds the rigs, drill bits, wellheads, blowout preventers, and hydraulic-fracturing ("frac") equipment used to drill oil and gas wells. [1][2]

Why an investor should care, and why the roll-up view adds something: these two children point in different directions and are owned in different ways. Mining machinery rides the energy-transition tailwind while its coal-linked lines decline — though that tailwind is commodity-specific, not generic: copper and gold drove 2025 mining demand while lithium-focused investment was cut sharply. [5][9] Oil-and-gas machinery is a classic petroleum cycle, soft in short-cycle U.S. shale but buoyed by long-cycle offshore and liquefied-natural-gas (LNG) work. Just as important for how you buy in: the oil-and-gas half has a real, liquid U.S. public market, while the mining half has no U.S.-listed pure-play at all — its specialists are foreign-listed. So the single most useful thing this level tells an investor is which door to walk through, and that depends entirely on which child you want. [2]

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2. What's inside — the two children and how they differ

The distinctive value of looking at this level (rather than at either child alone) is the contrast. Oil-and-gas field machinery is roughly 73% of the level by revenue and employment; mining machinery is the remaining 27%. The split is a little narrower on the count of businesses — about 70/30 by locations and firms — so mining's average establishment is somewhat smaller. [2] But size is the least interesting difference. The two businesses face opposite structural forces, are concentrated at different points in the size distribution, and — critically for readers here — are investable through completely different channels.

How to read this table. The mining half is the harder one to own directly — a U.S. investor wanting concentrated mining-equipment exposure is largely buying foreign shares, because the world's mining-equipment pure-plays (Sweden's Epiroc and Sandvik, the U.K.'s Weir, Finland's Metso) all list abroad. The oil-and-gas half is the easier one: it hosts a genuine set of U.S.-listed manufacturers and even a couple of sector ETFs. On direction, mining is a "barbell" — a growing metals/critical-minerals leg and a shrinking coal leg — while oil and gas is a "two-speed" cycle, weak in the fast-turning shale market but supported by slow-turning offshore and LNG backlog. [4][11][12][28]

One thing the ownership split hides: both children are global businesses, and only the listing venue differs. Much of the equipment running in U.S. mines is built abroad by Komatsu, Sandvik, Epiroc, and Liebherr [6], while on the oil side 94% of NOV's $4.34 billion Energy Equipment backlog is destined for international markets and 58% is offshore [17]. Buying the U.S.-listed oil-equipment names is not a bet on U.S. shale; buying the foreign-listed mining names is not a bet against North America.

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3. How big it is (this level's roll-up figures)

Our ground-truth U.S. federal statistics for NAICS 33313: [2]

That is an average wage of roughly $87,500 per worker — well above the private-sector average, reflecting skilled machining and engineering. [2] The oil-and-gas child averages about $90,000, which places the mining child below the level average. [2] The children add up cleanly on the physical measures: their receipts ($4.39 bn + $11.89 bn), employment (10,391 + 28,571), locations (266 + 622), and payroll ($834 m + $2.57 bn) reconcile to the level totals. The only reconciling item is the firm count — the children list 719 firms between them (223 + 496) but the level shows 710, because nine firms operate in both children and are counted once at this level. [2]

Both halves are capital-intensive enough that the Small Business Administration's "small" thresholds are unusually high — 900 employees for mining machinery and 1,250 for oil-and-gas machinery. [2][32]

Concentration is low and, notably, lower than either child on its own. The four largest firms hold about 24.4% of receipts (CR4), the top eight 32.3%, the top 20 47.6%, the top 50 66.7%, and the HHI is just 249 — far below the 1,500 that antitrust regulators treat as "concentrated." [2] This is an arithmetic artifact worth understanding: combining two industries dilutes concentration, because a firm that looms large in one child is a smaller slice of the merged universe. So the roll-up looks more fragmented (HHI 249) than mining (296) or oil-and-gas (383) measured alone. The children also concentrate at different points in the distribution: mining's top four hold less than oil's (about 25% vs. 31.8%), but its top 50 hold far more (about 84% vs. 74.5%) — mining is simply a smaller universe (223 firms vs. 496), so its long tail is shorter. [2] The real market power lives one level down, in the hardest-to-build products — subsea systems and blowout preventers on the oil side, underground longwall systems and large shovels on the mining side — not in this blended average. [2][6]

Scope caveats — and they do not run the same way in both children. The $16.3 billion federal figure is a fair measure of domestic equipment manufacturing, but it is misread in two different ways depending on which half you are looking at:

• Mining (333131) is a genuine undercount of the activity. Several iconic machines are booked elsewhere — the giant surface haul trucks and hydraulic shovels of an open-pit mine fall under Construction Machinery (NAICS 333120), not here — and much of the fleet running in U.S. mines is imported. On top of that, parts, rebuilds, and field service (roughly two-thirds of mining-equipment revenue) are often classified as wholesale or repair services rather than manufacturing. For scale, the global mining-equipment market was about $62 billion in 2024, and Caterpillar's Resource Industries segment alone booked $13.6 billion in 2024 — three times the entire U.S. 333131 line. [1][3][6][7]
• Oil and gas (333132) is not an undercount so much as an easy misreading. The $11.89 billion counts U.S. manufacturing establishments only; the household names book far larger totals — SLB $35.7 billion, Baker Hughes $27.7 billion, Halliburton $22.2 billion in 2025 — because most of that is services and international work outside this code. The crews and rigs that actually drill and frac wells are oilfield services (NAICS 213111/213112), a separate and much larger activity. Comparing a global company's segment revenue to domestic Census shipments is the single most common error made about this industry. [1][21][22][23]

Both children are also meaningful exporters — mining historically a net exporter (older data put U.S. exports near $2.2 billion against roughly $1.5 billion of imports in 2018; treat as dated and directional), and roughly a fifth of oil-and-gas equipment output ships abroad — which the domestic-shipments figure captures but which ties the industry's health to overseas drilling and mining too. [1][30]

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4. The investable universe — where value concentrates across the children

The single most important fact for an investor is that value concentrates very differently in the two halves, and so do the ways to reach it.

Oil & gas field machinery (333132) — a real U.S. public market. This is where a U.S.-listed investor has the most direct choice. The purest equipment makers are NOV Inc. (NYSE: NOV; ~$8.7 bn of 2025 revenue; rigs, drill pipe, downhole and completion gear — the most 333132-central large U.S. name), TechnipFMC (NYSE: FTI; ~$9.9 bn revenue and a ~$16.6 bn subsea order backlog that cushions the cycle), Cactus (NYSE: WHD; ~$1.08 bn; wellheads and surface pressure control), Innovex International (NYSE: INVX), Forum Energy Technologies (NYSE: FET), and Oil States International (NYSE: OIS), whose offshore backlog rose to $435 million at year-end 2025 from $311 million a year earlier. The diversified majors — SLB, Baker Hughes, Halliburton, Weatherford, plus subsea-robotics specialist Oceaneering — carry equipment as one segment inside a services-dominated business. [17][18][19][20][21][22][23]

Mining machinery (333131) — value sits mostly offshore of U.S. markets. There is no U.S.-listed pure-play. The cleanest exposure is foreign-listed: Epiroc and Sandvik (Stockholm; drills, underground loaders, rock tools, automation — each around SEK 63.6 bn (~$6 bn) of mining revenue, comfortably larger on their own than the whole U.S. 333131 line), Weir Group (London; slurry pumps, crushers — heavily aftermarket), and Metso and FLSmidth (Helsinki/Copenhagen; ore crushing, grinding, flotation — squarely the "beneficiation" gear in scope). Most trade in the U.S. only as OTC depositary receipts; Epiroc established sponsored receipts as recently as 2025. The one large U.S.-listed proxy is Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), where mining is roughly a fifth of the company, blended with construction and energy. Terex (NYSE: TEX; Materials Processing segment, $1.9 bn of $5.1 bn group revenue) and Astec (Nasdaq: ASTE) are U.S.-listed crushing-and-screening makers, but weighted toward construction aggregates rather than metals mining. Komatsu (Tokyo; owns P&H surface shovels and Joy underground) and privately held Liebherr round out the giants. [7][9][10][16]

Where the durable profit pools are, in both children: not in the machine but in the installed base. Whoever has placed the most equipment and runs the densest dealer/service network earns the most defensible, least-cyclical money. That is why, in both halves, the majors compete hard to place machines even at thin new-equipment margins — the payoff is the multi-decade aftermarket that follows.

(Tickers, revenue figures, and multiples for the individual names live in the two child primers; this level's job is to show that the mining door is mostly foreign and the oil-and-gas door is mostly domestic.)

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5. How the money works

Both children run the same core business model, which is what justifies grouping them: a cyclical capital-goods maker with a large, higher-margin recurring aftermarket. The shared mechanics:

• A "razor-and-blade" installed base. Sell the machine once; sell it parts, wear components, rebuilds, and service for its 10-to-20-plus-year life. Aftermarket revenue is higher-margin, far less cyclical than new-equipment sales, and is the profit engine on both sides — roughly two-thirds of mining-equipment revenue (Epiroc's 2025 Equipment & Service mix was 66% aftermarket to 34% equipment, and the company notes an equipment-heavy mix pressures margins), and the recurring layer of consumables, rentals, and OEM-certified repair that keeps the oil-side shops viable (Forum puts ~80% of its 2025 revenue in consumables and activity-based equipment). Caterpillar is steering the same way company-wide, targeting services revenue of about $24 billion in 2025 rising to $30 billion by 2030. [3][9][17][20]
• Operating leverage that cuts both ways. Heavy fixed factory costs mean margins expand fast when plants run full and compress just as fast in a downturn. This is the defining financial feature of the whole level.
• Steel is the dominant input. Margins are sensitive to metals prices — and tariffs on steel — on the cost side, not just the demand side. The 2017 Census showed materials costing $6.4 billion against $10.7 billion of shipments on the oil-and-gas side, roughly three-fifths of revenue; on the mining side Caterpillar reported $2.1 billion of unfavorable manufacturing costs company-wide in 2025, attributing much of it to tariffs. [8][31]
• Working-capital heavy. Long lead times and big inventories mean free cash flow can lag reported profit when activity is rising.

Where the two children's economics diverge: the oil-and-gas half has a distinctive short-cycle vs. long-cycle split. Short-cycle products (shale drilling and frac gear, consumables) turn with the rig count and can boom or bust within months; long-cycle products (subsea trees, LNG turbomachinery) are ordered years ahead and are tracked by backlog and book-to-bill (new orders ÷ revenue) — TechnipFMC's ~$16.6 billion backlog and NOV's $4.34 billion (about 49% expected to convert in 2026) are the classic cushions. The mining half is more uniformly long-cycle capital goods tied to multi-year mine-development decisions, with a smaller fast-turning consumables layer. [17][18]

Margins vary far more within a child than between them. On the oil side, NOV's Energy Equipment segment earned a 10.0% operating margin on $4.93 billion of 2025 revenue while Cactus reported a 32.7% adjusted EBITDA margin on $1.08 billion — different measures, but the gap is wide enough to make the point: differentiated, qualified, pressure-critical products earn multiples of what commodity fabrication earns. [17][19]

Metrics to watch (common to both): order intake and book-to-bill (the leading cycle indicator), backlog (revenue visibility), aftermarket revenue mix (the higher, the more durable the earnings), capacity utilization and incremental/operating margin through the cycle, and dealer or channel inventory (which can mask true end demand).

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6. What drives demand

The master switch for both children is the commodity price their customers earn — but the specific drivers differ, and in both halves the transmission from price to order is slower and less mechanical than it looks.

Mining machinery (333131):

• Metals prices and mining capex — the biggest driver; the world's top-20 miners' capex is projected to grow ~3.8% in 2026, aimed largely at copper, lithium, and aluminium. Epiroc reported 2025 mining demand driven principally by copper and gold, with orders up 7% organically. [4][9]
• The energy transition / critical minerals — a structural tailwind, but an uneven one. Lithium demand recently grew nearly 30% in a year, and the IEA projects a 25% copper supply deficit in 2035 under the current project pipeline — a multi-year case for new mines, and new mines need new equipment. Yet overall critical-mineral investment fell 9% in 2025, with copper-focused spending up 8% while lithium specialists cut investment by roughly 40%. "Energy transition" does not lift all mining-equipment demand equally; commodity, geography, and project quality decide. [4][5]
• Ore-grade decline and deeper mining — falling copper grades, rising project costs, and weak discovery raise the equipment intensity of every tonne of metal produced. [5]
• Automation and electrification — a genuine product super-cycle; roughly 3,832 autonomous haul trucks were running on surface mines as of mid-2025, and autonomous trucks are expected to be over a third of new haul-truck purchases by 2026. Battery-electric underground machines raise the price and software/service content of each unit. [11]
• Recycling — a genuine substitution risk. The IEA estimates stronger recycling could cut required new mining investment by around 30% through 2040, though recycling and mine-waste retreatment themselves need crushing, screening, and separation gear from the same suppliers. [5]
• Coal — a structural headwind with a policy wobble. U.S. coal production was about 512 million short tons in 2024, rebounding to 533 million in 2025, but EIA expects power-sector coal consumption to fall 9% in 2026, and consumption is already down 64% from its 2007 peak. 2025 policy support cushions the near term; coal exports to China collapsed roughly 92% amid tariffs. [12][13]

Oil & gas field machinery (333132):

• Oil and gas prices → E&P budgets → rig count. In 2025, softer prices and E&P "capital discipline" pulled activity down; U.S. upstream investment fell about 6% to roughly $420 billion and the rig count slipped several percent. [28]
• Production can rise while equipment demand falls. U.S. crude production hit a record 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025 even though Lower-48 rig activity ran 5% below 2024 and 1% fewer wells were drilled — efficiency, longer laterals, and better downhole tools made up the difference. Record output does not imply record equipment orders. [29]
• Offshore and LNG (long-cycle) — the bright spot; a wave of deepwater final investment decisions feeds subsea backlog (NOV's offshore sales rose 9% in 2025 despite weaker global activity), and EIA projects U.S. LNG exports rising from 15.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 17.4 in 2026 and 18.6 in 2027, driving turbomachinery and gas-processing orders. [17][29]
• Fleet renewal and exports — the shift to electric ("e-frac") pumping fleets is pulling forward replacement, and roughly a fifth of U.S. output ships abroad as idle frac horsepower is sold into Argentina, the Middle East, and elsewhere. [30]

The common thread: both are ultimately bets on how much rock or reservoir the world will move, and both increasingly monetize automation, electrification, and software layered onto the iron.

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7. Regulation

Regulation shapes product design more than market access in both children, and — tellingly — both are being pushed the same way by emissions rules toward electrification and lower-emission equipment.

Mining (333131): The Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) approves and certifies equipment for underground use, most consequentially "permissible" (explosion-proof) machines and diesel engines for gassy coal mines under 30 CFR Part 7 — a real barrier to casual entrants, and one with teeth: MSHA audits approval holders and can require retrofits or recalls, or revoke approvals, when products are not built as approved. EPA Tier 4 non-road diesel standards, phased in 2008–2015, cut particulates and nitrogen oxides roughly 90%, forcing costly after-treatment into surface machines and giving makers a core reason to move to battery-electric underground equipment. [14]

Oil & gas (333132): Design is heavily standards-driven: offshore blowout preventers and well-control gear must meet American Petroleum Institute (API) standards (notably API 53), incorporated into federal law by the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) Well Control Rule after the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster, which also sets original-equipment-manufacturer maintenance requirements. EPA methane rules (2024's "Quad Ob/Oc") drive demand for leak-detection and lower-emission equipment, but the regime has been loosening: EPA finalized narrow revisions in April 2026 estimated to save industry $2.5 billion over 2024–2038, and the separate Waste Emissions Charge regulation was disapproved in March 2025 and is not presently in force. This remains a politically sensitive swing factor. [25][26]

Shared exposures: both children are exposed to steel tariffs — U.S. Section 232 duties on steel and aluminum were raised from 25% to 50% in June 2025 — to export controls and sanctions that can close foreign markets overnight (Russia for oilfield gear; China for coal-linked equipment), and to their customers' permitting regimes, which govern how fast new mines and wells — and thus new equipment orders — can appear. [12][27][30]

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8. Competitive dynamics and consolidation

Both children are fragmented at the bottom, concentrated at the top — hundreds of small shops making components and consumables, with a handful of majors owning the hardest-to-build, highest-value equipment. That is why the blended level looks unconcentrated (HHI 249) even though the flagship products are near-oligopolies. In mining, five firms (Caterpillar, Komatsu, Sandvik, Epiroc, Hitachi) hold an estimated ~54% of the broad equipment market, and in underground specifically Sandvik, Epiroc, and Caterpillar account for roughly 75% of underground trucks and 88% of underground loaders; on the oil side the top four firms hold 31.8% of U.S. receipts while hundreds of shops compete below them. Astec, for its part, describes its own materials-processing market as "highly competitive and fragmented." [2][6][16]

Both have seen a decade of consolidation with the same strategic logic — gain scale, broaden the product bundle, and add recurring aftermarket and digital revenue to offset the cycle:

• Mining: Caterpillar bought Bucyrus (2011, ~$8.6–8.8 bn); Komatsu bought Joy Global (2017, ~$3.7 bn, now Komatsu Mining in Milwaukee); Atlas Copco spun off Epiroc as a listed pure-play (2018). Pressure is now rising from Chinese OEMs (XCMG, Sany, Zoomlion) moving up-market. [6][15]
• Oil & gas: SLB acquired ChampionX (~$7.8 bn, closed July 2025); Dril-Quip and Innovex merged to form Innovex International (2024); and Cactus took operational control of Baker Hughes's Surface Pressure Control business on 1 January 2026 through a venture it owns 65% of. Consolidation is partly driven by E&P customers merging into fewer, larger buyers demanding scale. [24]

The moat in both is the same: installed base + service network + certification, not just product.

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9. Risks

The two children share most risks but weight them differently:

• Commodity-price cyclicality (both, dominant). A downturn in metals, coal, or oil prices can halt orders within a quarter or two, and high operating leverage magnifies the hit. [4][28]
• The aftermarket cushions but does not immunize. Customers defer overhauls, cannibalize parked machines, and buy third-party parts. Caterpillar noted in 2025 that lower coal prices increased parked trucks and reduced expected rebuild activity even with an old, hard-worked fleet. [8]
• Structural/energy-transition demand (opposite signs, and messier than the slogan). For mining the transition is largely a tailwind (copper, gold) offset by a coal headwind — but it is commodity-specific, and stronger recycling could cut required new mining investment by around 30% through 2040. For oil and gas, long-run decarbonization is a genuine terminal-demand question, and E&P capital discipline caps activity even when prices are healthy. [5][12][28]
• Customer concentration and buyer power (both). A handful of very large miners and consolidating E&Ps drive orders and can push hard on price.
• Technology-transition risk (both). The race to autonomy, electrification, and digital raises capital intensity; a laggard can lose share even in a strong market. Automation also changes who captures lifecycle value — a closed control architecture strengthens the OEM's grip on its installed base, while OEM-agnostic software weakens it. [9][11][30]
• Trade, tariffs, and sanctions (both). Steel-tariff cost inflation (Section 232 at 50% since June 2025) and export-market closures (Russia for oilfield gear, China for coal) hit whole segments. [12][27][30]
• Labor and supply chain (both). These are machinist- and welder-dependent businesses; BLS projects about 34,200 annual openings for machinists and tool-and-die makers over 2024–2034 despite a 2% projected employment decline, largely replacement demand. [33]
• Product liability (both). A failure underground or in a well-control system produces downtime, injury exposure, warranty cost, litigation, and removal from approved-vendor lists — consequences far exceeding the price of the part. [14]
• For the public-market investor specifically: the mining half's pure-play exposure is mostly foreign listings and OTC receipts, adding currency and liquidity considerations that the U.S.-listed oil-and-gas names largely avoid.
• Working-capital and input-cost swings (both). Long lead times and steel-price volatility can whipsaw margins and cash flow.

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10. How to invest and the outlook

The roll-up's practical takeaway: pick your child first, because they are reached through different doors.

• If you want oil-and-gas equipment (the larger, ~73% child): there is a liquid U.S. public market — specialists (NOV, TechnipFMC, Cactus, Innovex, Forum, Oil States) for the purest exposure, majors (SLB, Baker Hughes, Halliburton) for diversified scale with dividends and buybacks, and two sector ETFs (OIH, XES) for one-ticker exposure. Read the ETFs carefully: they bundle manufacturers with their service peers and lean heavily on the diversified majors — as of 1 June 2026, OIH held SLB at 20.78% and Baker Hughes at 11.62% against just 3.42% in NOV, so it is far more a services fund than an equipment fund. Valuations and yields move with the oil cycle, so entry point matters as much as company quality. [17][18][19][34]
• If you want mining equipment (the ~27% child): expect to reach it mostly through foreign shares or OTC receipts (Epiroc, Sandvik, Weir, Metso, FLSmidth), or through Caterpillar as a diversified U.S.-listed proxy. Terex and Astec are U.S.-listed alternatives but tilt to construction aggregates rather than metals mining. There is no dedicated U.S.-listed mining-equipment ETF; broad industrials or metals-and-mining funds give only diffuse exposure. [7][9][10][16]
• Private-market routes (both children): the level's 710 firms are mostly small and private — a fragmented base well suited to private-equity "buy-and-build" roll-ups and to direct ownership of specialist machine shops, wear-parts and consumables makers, rebuild/field-service businesses, and dealers. These capture the same durable aftermarket economics that make the majors attractive, often at more accessible scale. The best targets in both halves look alike: proprietary or qualified designs, a large active installed base, high recurring parts content, limited dependence on one mine, basin, or customer, and technicians near the work. Corporate-owned units (Caterpillar's SPM Oil & Gas; its mining lines) are another model. [2]

Outlook (forward-looking judgment, not fact). The level is genuinely two stories under one code. The mining child's multi-year setup favors copper- and gold-led hard-rock equipment demand tied to the energy transition, with the important caveat that critical-minerals investment is uneven — copper spending rising, lithium spending contracting sharply — while coal-linked lines face secular decline that 2025 policy only cushions. The oil-and-gas child is two-speed: soft short-cycle U.S. shale (idle frac capacity heading to export) against a strong long-cycle offshore-and-LNG backlog into 2026, with EIA projecting crude output rising to 13.8 million barrels per day in 2026 and LNG exports climbing through 2027 — growth that no longer requires proportionally more rigs. In both, expect continued consolidation and a rising tilt toward recurring aftermarket, automation, electrification, and digital revenue. The firms best positioned across the whole level are those with the largest installed base, the deepest aftermarket, and the strongest automation/electrification portfolios — because in this industry, on both the mining and the oil-and-gas side, the durable money is made not on selling the machine but on keeping it running. [3][5][9][11][29][30]

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Sources

1. U.S. Census Bureau / NAICS Association, "NAICS 333131 and 333132 — definitions, scope, and cross-references" (2022), including exclusions to Construction Machinery (333120) and Oilfield Services (213111/213112). https://www.naics.com/naics-code-description/?code=333131; https://www.naics.com/naics-code-description/?code=333132
2. U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2023 and Economic Census 2022 (Concentration statistics), NAICS 33313 and its children 333131/333132 — Histometrics ingested federal statistics. Level: receipts $16.28 bn; 888 establishments; 710 firms; 38,962 employees; $3.41 bn payroll; CR4 24.4%, CR8 32.3%, CR20 47.6%, CR50 66.7%, HHI 249.2. Mining (333131): $4.39 bn; 266 establishments; 223 firms; 10,391 employees; $834 m payroll; CR4 ~25%, CR8 ~42%, CR50 ~84%, HHI 296; SBA size standard 900 employees. Oil & gas (333132): $11.89 bn; 622 establishments; 496 firms; 28,571 employees; $2.57 bn payroll; CR4 31.8%, CR8 40.8%, CR20 57.2%, CR50 74.5%, HHI 382.7. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census.html; https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/cbp.html
3. Zacks / Yahoo Finance, "Caterpillar vs. Komatsu: Which Equipment Stock Has the Edge Now?" (mining-equipment aftermarket ~two-thirds of revenue; Caterpillar services target $24 bn in 2025 to $30 bn by 2030; Komatsu parts and service near half of its construction/mining/utility segment), 2026. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/caterpillar-vs-komatsu-equipment-stock-143900555.html
4. International Energy Agency, "Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 — Executive Summary" (copper/lithium demand and deficits); Mining Technology, "Top 20 miners' CapEx to grow by 3.8% in 2026." https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2026/executive-summary; https://www.mining-technology.com/analyst-comment/top-20-miners-capex/
5. International Energy Agency, "Global Critical Minerals Outlook — Overview of outlook for key minerals" (critical-mineral investment down 9% in 2025, copper-focused spending up 8%, lithium specialists down ~40%; 25% copper supply deficit projected for 2035; recycling could cut required new mining investment ~30% through 2040; grade decline and discovery weakness). https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2025/overview-of-outlook-for-key-minerals
6. GMInsights / GlobeNewswire, "Underground Mining Equipment Industry Report 2025–2030 — Sandvik, Epiroc and Caterpillar Dominate with 75% Market Share" (global mining-equipment market ~$62 bn in 2024; five firms ~54% of the broad market; ~75% of underground trucks and 88% of underground loaders), 2026. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/02/18/3240455/0/en/Underground-Mining-Equipment-Industry-Report-2025-2030-Sandvik-Epiroc-and-Caterpillar-Dominate-with-75-Market-Share.html
7. Caterpillar Inc., "Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2024 Results" (Resource Industries segment revenue $13.6 bn). https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/caterpillar-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2024-results-302364343.html
8. Caterpillar Inc., Form 10-K for fiscal year ended 31 December 2025 ($2.1 bn unfavorable manufacturing costs and $817 m unfavorable price realization, much attributed to tariffs); Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2025 (lower coal prices increased parked trucks and reduced expected rebuild activity). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18230/000001823026000008/cat-20251231.htm; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18230/000001823025000040/cat-20250630.htm
9. Epiroc, "Annual and Sustainability Report 2025 — Equipment & Service" (aftermarket 66% of revenue vs. 34% equipment); "Epiroc publishes 2025 Annual and Sustainability Report" (2025 orders +7% organic, driven by copper and gold); "Epiroc establishes sponsored American Depositary Receipts in United States" (2025). https://reports.epirocgroup.com/annual-and-sustainability-report-2025/administration-report/equipment-service/; https://www.epirocgroup.com/en/media/corporate-press-releases/2026/20260319-epiroc-publishes-2025-annual-and-sustainability-report.html; https://www.epirocgroup.com/en/media/corporate-press-releases/2025/20250424-epiroc-establishes-sponsored-american-depositary-receipts-in-united-states.html
10. Aggregates Business, "Strong mining demand helps Epiroc to 'record high' revenues & orders in 2024" (revenue SEK 63.6 bn, ~$6 bn); Sandvik AB, "Annual Report 2024 — Sandvik Mining and Rock Solutions" (mining revenue SEK 63.6 bn, ~$6 bn). https://www.aggbusiness.com/strong-mining-demand-helps-epiroc-to-record-high-revenues-orders-in-2024/; https://www.annualreport.sandvik/en/2024/operations/sandvik-mining-and-rock-solutions/overview.html
11. GlobalData, autonomous and electric mining-truck market analysis (3,832 autonomous haul trucks operating as of mid-2025; over a third of new haul-truck purchases expected by 2026), 2025–2026. https://www.globaldata.com/store/report/development-of-autonomous-trucks-in-mining-market-analysis/
12. Congressional Research Service, "U.S. Coal Industry Trends" (2025) — 512 million short tons produced in 2024; consumption down 64% from the 2007 peak; exports to China down roughly 92%; 2025 policy support. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48587
13. U.S. Energy Information Administration, coal production and outlook data (533 million short tons in 2025; power-sector coal consumption forecast down 9% in 2026). https://www.eia.gov/coal/annual/; https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67684; https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/elec_coal_renew.php
14. Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA), "Approval and Certification Center" (30 CFR Part 7 approvals, audits, retrofits and revocation); U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Regulations for Emissions from Heavy Equipment with Compression-Ignition (Diesel) Engines" (Tier 4 non-road standards, ~90% PM and NOx reduction). https://www.msha.gov/about/program-areas-offices/technical-support/technical-support/approval-and-certification-center; https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/regulations-emissions-heavy-equipment-compression
15. Mining-equipment consolidation: Caterpillar completes acquisition of Bucyrus (2011); Joy Global shareholders approve $3.7 bn acquisition by Komatsu (2017); Epiroc split from Atlas Copco Group (2018). https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/caterpillar-completes-acquisition-of-bucyrus-creating-mining-equipment-group-with-unmatched-product-range-and-unrivaled-customer-support-125214769.html; https://www.mining.com/joy-global-shareholders-approve-3-7-billion-acquisition-komatsu/; https://www.atlascopcogroup.com/en/investors/acquisitions-and-divestments/epiroc-split-from-atlas-copco-group
16. Terex Corporation, "Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2024 Results" (group sales $5.1 bn; Materials Processing $1.9 bn); Astec Industries Inc., Form 10-K for fiscal year ended 31 December 2025 ("highly competitive and fragmented" materials-solutions market). https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/terex-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2024-results-302369223.html; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/792987/000079298726000011/aste-20251231.htm
17. NOV Inc., 2025 Form 10-K (revenue ~$8.74 bn; Energy Equipment backlog $4.34 bn, ~49% expected to convert in 2026, 58% offshore, 94% international; Energy Equipment segment revenue $4.93 bn at a 10.0% operating margin; offshore sales +9%). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1021860/000119312526048350/nov-20251231.htm
18. CompaniesMarketCap / TechnipFMC, "TechnipFMC 2025 revenue and backlog" (revenue ~$9.9 bn; backlog ~$16.6 bn), 2026. https://companiesmarketcap.com/technipfmc/revenue/
19. Cactus, Inc., "Cactus Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results" (revenue ~$1.08 bn) and investor presentation filed with the SEC (2025 revenue $1.079 bn, 32.7% adjusted EBITDA margin), 2026. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260225154720/en/Cactus-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Results; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1699136/000162828026018270/march2026investorpresent.htm
20. Forum Energy Technologies, 2025 Form 10-K (~80% of revenue from consumable products and activity-based equipment); Oil States International, 2025 Form 10-K (Offshore Manufactured Products backlog $435 m vs. $311 m a year earlier). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1401257/000140125726000015/fet-20251231.htm; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1121484/000112148426000007/ois-20251231.htm
21. SLB, "SLB Announces Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Results" (revenue $35.71 bn), 2026. https://investorcenter.slb.com/news-releases
22. Baker Hughes Co., SEC Form ARS FY2025 (full-year revenue ~$27.7 bn), 2026. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1701605/000119312526130311/d63282dars.pdf
23. Halliburton, "Halliburton announces fourth quarter 2025 results" (full-year revenue $22.2 bn), 2026. https://www.halliburton.com/en/about-us/press-release/halliburton-announces-fourth-quarter-2025-results
24. Oil-and-gas equipment consolidation: World Oil, "SLB completes $7.8 billion ChampionX acquisition" (July 2025); NS Energy, "Dril-Quip and Innovex Downhole Solutions complete merger to form Innovex International" (2024); Cactus, Inc. SEC filing (Cactus assumes 65% operational control of Baker Hughes's Surface Pressure Control business, 1 January 2026). https://www.worldoil.com/news/2025/7/16/slb-completes-7-8-billion-championx-acquisition/; https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/deals/dril-quip-and-innovex-downhole-solutions-complete-merger-to-form-innovex-international/; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1699136/000162828026019875/exhibit991.htm
25. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), "Blowout Preventer Systems and Well Control Rule — Technical Fact Sheet" (incorporates API Standard 53), 2019. https://www.bsee.gov/sites/bsee.gov/files/fact-sheet/bsee-fact-sheet-well-control-rule-2019.pdf
26. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: "EPA's Final Rule for Oil and Natural Gas Operations" (methane "Quad Ob/Oc," 2024); "2026 Final Rule to Reduce Burden" (technical reconsideration; $2.5 bn estimated industry savings 2024–2038); methane policy page (Waste Emissions Charge regulation disapproved March 2025). https://www.epa.gov/controlling-air-pollution-oil-and-natural-gas-operations/epas-final-rule-oil-and-natural-gas; https://www.epa.gov/controlling-air-pollution-oil-and-natural-gas-operations/2026-final-rule-reduce-burden-oil-and; https://www.epa.gov/natural-gas-star-program/rulemakings-policy-and-laws-address-methane-emissions-oil-and-gas-sector
27. Federal Register, Proclamation 10947 (Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum increased from 25% to 50%, June 2025). https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/full_text/html/2025/06/09/2025-10524.html
28. International Energy Agency, "Oil 2025 — Executive Summary" (U.S. upstream investment down ~6% to ~$420 bn in 2025); Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, "Dallas Fed Energy Survey — Q1 2025" (activity and rig-count softness). https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-2025/executive-summary; https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2025/2503
29. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "U.S. crude oil production reached a record 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025" (Lower-48 rig activity 5% below 2024, 1% fewer wells drilled), March 2026; Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2026 (crude 13.6 → 13.8 → 14.0 mbd; LNG exports 15.1 → 17.4 → 18.6 bcf/d, 2025–2027). https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67404; https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/index.php
30. Transport Topics / Rigzone, "Fracking Companies Turn to Global Buyers for Idle Equipment" (~20% of U.S. oil-and-gas equipment output exported; e-frac adoption; Russia export-market closure), 2026. https://www.ttnews.com/articles/fracking-gear-global-exports
31. Steel Founders' Society of America, Steel Casting Industry 2022, reproducing 2017 Economic Census data for NAICS 333132 ($6.415 bn materials cost against $10.673 bn of shipments; $3.510 bn value added). https://www.sfsa.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Steel-Casting-2022-SL2022.pdf
32. U.S. Small Business Administration, "Table of Small Business Size Standards" (NAICS 333132 = 1,250 employees). https://www.sba.gov/document/support-table-size-standards
33. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook — Machinists and Tool-and-Die Makers (about 34,200 annual openings projected 2024–2034 despite a 2% employment decline). https://www.bls.gov/ooh/production/machinists-and-tool-and-die-makers.htm
34. VanEck, Oil Services ETF (OIH) portfolio holdings, 1 June 2026 (SLB 20.78%, Baker Hughes 11.62%, NOV 3.42%). https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/oil-services-etf-oih/portfolio/