U.S. Forging and Stamping: An Investor Primer

North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) 2022 code 33211 — a five-digit industry containing five child industries: iron and steel forging (332111), nonferrous forging (332112), custom roll forming (332114), powder metallurgy part manufacturing (332117), and metal crown, closure, and other metal stamping (332119).

1. Overview

Forging and stamping is the part of U.S. manufacturing that shapes solid metal into strong, repeatable parts — by hammering or pressing heated billet (forging), rolling coil through contoured rolls (roll forming), compacting metal powder and heating it below its melting point (powder metallurgy), or punching sheet at high speed (stamping).[1] Its products sit inside almost everything mechanical: aircraft engines and landing gear, truck wheels and driveline parts, bottle caps and canning lids, gears and bearings, solar frames, warehouse racking and building framing.

The single most useful fact for an investor is that this is a fragmented, unconcentrated industry with no clean U.S.-listed pure play in any of its five children. The four largest firms account for only about 12% of industry receipts, and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index — a standard concentration measure that runs from near zero (perfect competition) to 10,000 (monopoly) — is just 62.2.[2] Public-market investors therefore buy diversified manufacturers with forging or stamping inside them; private investors have the more direct routes, because the bulk of the industry is family-owned shops, employee-owned companies, and private-equity platforms.

Read that fragmentation number carefully. It is a level-wide average, and it does not describe any child: none of the five children carries a publishable six-digit concentration ratio or HHI in the federal data, so the level's HHI of 62.2 cannot be pushed down to a single industry.[2] Within specific qualified product markets, concentration can be extreme — a generation ago the Federal Trade Commission found only four viable suppliers for certain large titanium and nickel-superalloy aerospace forgings.[3] Fragmentation is a fact about shop counts, not about competitive intensity in any given part number.

The children are not one business. They differ in size, growth direction, who owns them, how the economics work, and even in how well the statistical system measures them. Section 2 leads with that contrast; the rest of the primer covers the level as a whole.

2. What's inside — the five children and how they differ

All five convert metal into shape and share the same operating DNA: heavy fixed-cost equipment, customer-specific tooling, metal-cost pass-through, and capacity utilization as the master profit lever. But their end markets, ownership, and momentum diverge sharply. Shares below are of the level's 2023 employer totals.[4]

ESOP = employee stock ownership plan; PE = private equity. Specific tickers and private operators appear in Sections 4 and 10.

Three contrasts matter most:

• Size is lopsided. Stamping and closures (332119) alone is roughly half the industry's jobs and more than half its plants; the two forging children plus roll forming make up most of the rest; powder metallurgy and nonferrous forging are the small, specialized tails.
• Growth points in different directions. Nonferrous forging and roll forming lean into structural tailwinds (aerospace build rates, data centers, solar, reshoring). Powder metallurgy faces a genuine structural headwind from vehicle electrification. Iron-and-steel forging and stamping are mixed — strong in aerospace/defense/energy and defensive in closures, softer in autos, trucks and general industrial.
• The economics reward qualification, not process. Payroll per employee, derived from the same CBP series, ranges from about $87,000 in nonferrous forging (scarce, qualified aerospace work) through roughly $77,000 in iron-and-steel forging and $69,000 in roll forming, down to about $63,000 in stamping and $60,000 in powder metallurgy (higher-volume, more automated), against a level average near $68,000.[4] The same ranking shows up in the segment margins in Section 5: the more qualification- and safety-critical the work, the higher the value captured.

3. How big it is

Our federal ground-truth extract for NAICS 33211 gives a consistent picture across two sources — 2023 County Business Patterns (CBP) for employment and payroll, and the 2022 Economic Census concentration file for receipts, firm count and concentration.[2][4]

A useful check: the five children's 2023 CBP figures sum exactly to the level — establishments (283 + 53 + 373 + 134 + 1,094 = 1,937), employment (17,126 + 6,018 + 15,190 + 8,859 + 45,585 = 92,778) and payroll ($1.315bn + $0.521bn + $1.050bn + $0.534bn + $2.879bn = $6.299bn).[4] The rollup is clean within CBP. It is not clean across federal programs, as the next two paragraphs show.

Concentration. With 1,671 firms, a CR4 of just 12%, even the top 50 firms below half of receipts (42.2%), and an HHI of 62.2, this is one of the more fragmented industries in U.S. manufacturing.[2] That fragmentation is the backdrop for the entire investment case: it is why there is no pure-play stock, why private equity can build platforms by rolling up regional shops, and why competitive advantage comes from qualification and customer relationships rather than national scale. But the concentration file publishes those measures only at the level — no unsuppressed CR4 or HHI is available for any of the five children, so the fragmentation shown here should not be assumed to hold inside any one of them.[2]

What the receipts figure does — and does not — tell you. The $33.2 billion is 2022 Economic Census receipts for the whole level.[2] The revised children now carry a revenue indicator for four of the five — an improvement on the single figure the parent previously had — but they come from three different federal programs on different vintages and definitions:

We do not add these together, and we do not reconcile them against the $33.2 billion. Two are EPA restatements of Statistics of U.S. Businesses data rather than final Economic Census totals, one child is missing entirely, and the four that exist are drawn from three programs whose universes do not match. Any sum would be a manufactured statistic.

The children's universes differ by source, not just their revenue. Where a second federal source exists, it consistently describes a different — usually larger — industry than CBP does. In iron and steel forging, CBP counts 283 establishments and 17,126 employees for 2023, while an EPA analysis on 2022 data reports 324 firms operating 376 establishments with 19,681 employees; the sources do not reconcile the gap, and it should not be read as a one-year collapse in capacity.[4][5] In nonferrous forging, CBP shows 53 establishments and 6,018 employees for 2023 against Statistics of U.S. Businesses' 50 firms, 60 establishments and 6,753 employees for 2022.[4][6] In powder metallurgy, CBP shows 134 establishments and 8,859 employees against an EPA count of 133 establishments and 6,707 employees.[4][9] The practical lesson for an investor is that six-digit federal counts in this level are indicative, not definitive — and that any market-share calculation built on one of them is fragile.

Even "small" is defined differently by child. The Small Business Administration's employee ceiling runs from 950 in nonferrous forging and 750 in iron and steel forging down to 600 in roll forming, 550 in powder metallurgy and 500 in stamping.[10] These are eligibility thresholds for federal programs, not descriptions of the typical company — a substantial manufacturer can still qualify as small.

Undercount caveat. These are employer-establishment figures. They exclude nonemployer (owner-only) businesses and, more importantly, captive forging and stamping done inside plants classified by their finished product — a vehicle, aircraft, machinery or building maker that forges or stamps in-house is counted in that product's industry, not here.[1] That captive undercount understates the true economic footprint of the process across all five children. Small/individual ownership is most relevant in stamping (332119), where 821 of 1,094 plants have fewer than 50 workers and an EPA analysis puts roughly 95.6% of employer firms below the applicable SBA threshold by count, and in the roll-forming tail, so the nonemployer omission bites harder there than in the capital-heavy forging children.[4][8] No suppressed value is reported anywhere above.

4. Investable universe — where value concentrates

Value in this industry does not sit in a listed pure play; it sits in qualified, well-utilized capacity — and most of that capacity is privately held. Public exposure is a set of imperfect proxies, and it concentrates in two of the five children:

• Nonferrous forging (332112) holds by far the largest listed market values, because that is where aerospace and specialty-materials scale lives: Howmet Aerospace posted 2025 sales of $8.25 billion, ATI $4.59 billion, and Precision Castparts $10.8 billion of 2025 revenue inside Berkshire Hathaway.[11][12][13] All of that exposure is diluted inside much bigger companies, and none of those totals is NAICS 332112 revenue.
• Stamping and closures (332119) offers the most listed names, spread across packaging and contract-manufacturing companies that each bury stamping inside a broader business.
• Iron-and-steel forging (332111) is a cluster of small-caps plus indirect mega-cap ownership.
• Custom roll forming (332114) and powder metallurgy (332117) remain the thinnest for public investors — the closest vehicles are foreign-listed or a U.S. acquirer that only closed its powder-metallurgy purchase in February 2026.

Representative listed proxies, by child (all figures total-company or total-segment, never NAICS-segment; none is a pure play):

The private universe is larger and more direct. Across the children it includes family-owned and vertically integrated forgers (Ellwood; Scot Forge, which is wholly employee-owned), aerospace forging specialists (Weber Metals under Germany's OTTO FUCHS, home to a 60,000-ton closed-die press), the largest independent roll formers (OMCO — self-described as the country's largest custom roll former, with five plants and more than 50 active mills, acquired by family-owned MacLean-Fogg in February 2026; Austria's Welser, with two Ohio plants and more than 75 roll-forming lines), private-equity roll-forming platforms (Crossplane's Hynes Industries), powder-metal platforms (Metal Powder Products under Mill Point), and precision and job-shop stampers (Oberg Industries).[31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38] These are illustrative, not a market-share ranking; private disclosure is thin.

5. How the money works

Despite different products, all five children run the same financial engine:

• Metal is a pass-through, not a margin. Contracts typically separate a conversion price from the metal cost, with escalators or surcharges tied to a steel, aluminum, titanium, nickel or powder index. Well-designed pass-through protects margins; lags and gaps in it are where cash and profit leak. Metal dominates the cost stack at scale — Crown reported that aluminum and steel were 47% and 8% respectively of its 2025 consolidated cost of products sold excluding depreciation and amortization, and Mayville says customer agreements generally pass commodity changes through on market indices.[26][28] The Producer Price Index for steel-mill products was 16.9% higher than a year earlier in June 2026, raising working-capital and pass-through risk across the whole level.[39]
• Capacity utilization is the master lever. Presses, furnaces, mills and skilled crews are fixed costs whether busy or idle, so incremental volume drops through at high margins and lost volume hurts fast. SIFCO quantifies the drag directly: $992,000 of idle-capacity cost in fiscal 2025 and $1.412 million in fiscal 2024.[13] There is no six-digit federal utilization series; the broader fabricated-metal-products sector ran at 76.9% of capacity in June 2026, below its 78.5% average since 1972, even as sector output ran 2.1% above the prior year — useful cycle context, not a plant-level measure.[40]
• Tooling and qualification create the moat. Once a die, profile or part is tooled, tested and approved — especially under aerospace, defense, food-contact or automotive standards — customers are slow to re-source. That stickiness, more than scale, is the durable edge. It is not absolute: customers frequently own the dies and can move them.
• Value-added work is where the money migrates. Heat treatment, machining, nondestructive testing, in-line fabrication and assembly capture more revenue per part and deepen customer relationships.

How wide the profitability spread actually is. The revised children now carry enough segment disclosure to place the level's economics on a scale, which the parent previously could not. None of these is a NAICS margin, the definitions are not comparable (EBITDA, EBIT, operating and gross margins all appear), and each segment contains work outside this level — but the ordering is informative:

• Howmet Forged Wheels: $1.039 billion of 2025 sales, $296 million adjusted EBITDA, a 28.5% margin; Howmet Engineered Structures: $1.148 billion of sales, $243 million adjusted EBITDA, 21.2%.[11]
• ATI High Performance Materials & Components: roughly $2.4 billion of 2025 sales and $575.8 million of segment EBITDA, 23.6% of sales, of which precision forgings, castings and components were 40% of revenue.[12]
• GKN Powder Metallurgy: £983 million of adjusted revenue and £89 million of adjusted operating profit in 2024, a 9.1% adjusted operating margin.[41]
• Mayville Engineering: adjusted EBITDA margin of 8.6% in 2025, down from 11.1% in 2024 and 11.2% in 2023, with manufacturing margin falling from 12.2% to 9.9% of sales.[26]
• voestalpine's Metal Forming division: a 6.3% EBITDA margin and 1.5% EBIT margin for the nine months to December 31, 2025.[42]
• Park-Ohio's Engineered Products segment: a 1.4% operating margin in 2025, down from 3.7%, including an $8.9 million impairment tied primarily to Arkansas forging operations.[15]
• SIFCO: a 12.5% fiscal-2025 gross margin against 7.5% the prior year — but the year included a $3.0 million Employee Retention Credit benefit and operating income of only $180,000.[13]

The pattern is the same one visible in the pay spread from Section 2: aerospace-qualified nonferrous work earns segment margins in the low-to-high twenties, while diversified industrial, automotive-facing and general-fabrication work earns low-single to low-double digits.[4] Process does not set the margin; qualification, mix and utilization do. For any target, the questions are the same — utilization by press/furnace/mill, yield and scrap, tooling ownership and portability, metal pass-through terms, backlog quality after cancellation rights, and deferred maintenance masquerading as free cash flow.

6. Demand drivers

Because the children serve different end markets, the level is diversified — a strength that also means no single indicator captures it.

• Aerospace and defense drive nonferrous forging and the high end of iron-and-steel forging: long qualifications, multiyear engine and structural programs, recurring aftermarket work, and domestic-sourcing rules that favor approved U.S. suppliers. This is where the growth currently is. ATI reported that 92% of High Performance Materials & Components revenue in 2025 came from aerospace and defense, with aerospace-and-defense sales up 14%, commercial jet engines up 21% and defense up 24%; it also notes that specialty-material demand leads aircraft deliveries by roughly six to twelve months, so build schedules matter more than passenger traffic.[12] At SIFCO, military sales were $47.9 million against $36.9 million commercial in fiscal 2025, with fixed-wing up but commercial-space down $8.2 million as a customer worked off inventory.[13]
• Automotive and heavy vehicles drive powder metallurgy, much of iron-and-steel forging, and automotive-facing roll forming and stamping — high operating leverage but sharp cyclicality. The Metal Powder Industries Federation estimates that more than 70% of North American iron-powder shipments go into passenger vehicles, and that the average North American passenger vehicle contained roughly 14.8 kilograms of powder-metal components in 2024; total North American metal-powder shipments rose only 0.6% in 2025 to 327,379 metric tons, while iron-and-steel powder shipments fell 1.6%.[43][44] Electrification is not uniform in its effect: battery-electric drivetrains remove crankshafts, connecting rods and much conventional transmission content but still need high-torque gears, shafts, wheel-end, suspension and safety-critical components, and hybrids preserve most of it.[45] For forging that is a negative mix shift rather than an extinction event; for powder metallurgy it is a sharper structural headwind.
• Construction, warehousing, data centers and solar drive custom roll forming (framing, racking, tracker and panel frames) and building-facing stamping. The construction signal is mixed rather than directional: total housing starts reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.427 million in June 2026, up 19.0% from May and 3.5% year over year, while single-family starts were 895,000 and nearly flat month to month.[46]
• Packaged food, beverage, pharma and personal care drive the closures half of 332119 — the most defensive demand in the level, but not immune: Silgan's specialty-closure unit volumes fell approximately 3% in 2025, principally because adverse first-half weather cut North American beverage demand.[25]
• Energy, rail, mining and general industrial cut across forging, roll forming and stamping, following freight, capital-equipment and infrastructure cycles.

The mix means the level rarely moves in unison. In mid-2026, aerospace, defense and turbine demand was firm while the industrial and vehicle side was visibly soft: Park-Ohio's forged-and-machined-products revenue declined three years running, from $133.4 million in 2023 to $127.8 million in 2024 to $111.3 million in 2025; Mayville's 2025 sales fell 6.0% to $546.5 million amid weak demand and customer destocking; and Howmet Forged Wheels saw 2024 revenue fall 8% and EBITDA 7%, cutting roughly 160 net positions, with the company expecting commercial-transport weakness before a recovery in the second half of 2026.[11][13][15][26]

7. Regulation

Regulation across all five children is plant-level safety, environmental, food-contact and trade rules rather than price or rate regulation — the utility-style rate base, real-estate FFO or mining-cost frameworks do not apply here.

• Worker safety. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) regulates forging machines (29 Code of Federal Regulations 1910.218), mechanical power presses used in stamping (1910.217), general machine guarding for roll-forming nip points (1910.212), and control of hazardous energy/lockout (1910.147).[47] Powder plants add combustible-dust risk — finely divided aluminum, magnesium, chromium, zinc and even iron can become explosible, and OSHA runs a Combustible Dust National Emphasis Program requiring engineered handling, housekeeping and ignition control.[48] The hazard shows up in the data: the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 2024 total-recordable injury and illness rates of 5.7 cases per 100 full-time workers in nonferrous forging and 5.8 in custom roll forming — roughly double their benchmarks, though note the two children benchmark against different bases (2.3 for all private industry and 3.2 for fabricated metal product manufacturing respectively).[49]
• Environment. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) covers qualifying metal-fabrication and finishing air emissions, effluent, and hazardous waste; furnaces, coatings, cleaning and machining can trigger state permits.[50] Closure plants add a separate hazardous-air-pollutant category for surface coating of metal cans, which expressly covers crowns and closures.[51]
• Food contact (closures only). The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulates liners, coatings, inks, adhesives and sealants that may migrate into food — a compliance layer unique to the closures business, and a live cost: Silgan reports expense associated with removing intentionally added BPA and flags PFAS restrictions as a possible source of further reformulation.[25][52]
• Trade. Section 232 metal tariffs simultaneously support domestic pricing and raise the cost of billet, coil, equipment and spare parts. Under the 2026 framework, covered steel articles can face a 50% duty while derivative products face product- and origin-specific rates, and June 2026 revisions added further classification and origin rules — so exposure has to be assessed shipment by shipment rather than treated as a flat 50% charge.[53] A July 2026 program allows approved primary-aluminum onshoring projects to import at half the otherwise applicable rate, subject to future Commerce Department procedures; it is not a general reduction in aluminum-coil cost.[54] Build America, Buy America and defense specialty-metal and forging restrictions (DFARS) favor qualified domestic forgings and stampings.[55][56]
• Private certification acts like regulation. Nadcap accreditation for forging processes and customer-specific approvals are not laws, but in aerospace they function as practical licenses to compete — and, like the statutory rules, they are barriers as much as costs.[57]

The recurring theme: compliance is also commercial. A safety, quality or food-contact failure can mean line shutdowns, recalls, customer disqualification and liability that dwarf a year's profit.

8. Consolidation

The industry's fragmentation (HHI 62.2, CR4 12%) is precisely what makes it a consolidation hunting ground, and the pattern is consistent across children: carve-outs and regional roll-ups, not industry-wide mergers.[2] Recent examples span all five — Stellex's purchase of Arcosa's steel-components/rail-forging platform (now FerroWorks) and Mutares' purchase of Hirschvogel's North American operation (now Walor North America) in iron-and-steel forging; MacLean-Fogg's February 2026 acquisition of OMCO and Crossplane's Hynes platform in roll forming; Dauch's roughly $1.7 billion Dowlais acquisition bringing GKN Powder Metallurgy under a U.S. listing, alongside platform-building at Metal Powder Products; and continuing closure and job-shop deals in stamping such as PrecisionX's purchase of Hudson Technologies.[17][18][34][36][37][58][59][60]

The logic is the same everywhere: buy customers, tooling, regional freight coverage and spare capacity rather than build new. The traps are also the same: acquisitions can transfer revenue that evaporates when customer-owned tooling walks, obsolete presses and neglected dies, inherited environmental and pension liabilities, and metal-inflated revenue mistaken for real growth.

Two facts complicate the fragmentation story. First, within specific qualified product markets the industry can be extremely concentrated — the FTC found only four viable suppliers for certain large titanium and nickel-superalloy aerospace forgings when Precision Castparts sought Wyman-Gordon.[3] Second, the level is fragmented downstream but concentrated upstream: MPIF warns that only two major iron-powder suppliers remain in North America, and the U.S. Geological Survey reported only one active U.S. titanium-sponge producer in 2023 — with limited capacity directed to electronics after two facilities were idled — against China holding an estimated 65.8% of potential world sponge capacity.[44][61] A buyer of shop capacity is not buying input security.

9. Risks

Shared across the level:

• Operating leverage. Low utilization compresses margins quickly because equipment and skilled crews are fixed — the SIFCO idle-capacity charges and the Park-Ohio, Mayville and voestalpine margin declines in Section 5 are all the same mechanism.[13][15][26][42]
• Input volatility and input concentration. Steel, aluminum, titanium, nickel, powder and energy can move faster than surcharges reset — and the supply base behind several of them is thin (two North American iron-powder suppliers; one U.S. titanium-sponge producer).[44][61]
• Customer and program concentration. Losing one qualified program can strand specialized presses, dies or lines. Mayville's ten largest customers were 62.3% of 2025 sales, with PACCAR at 13.6% and Deere at 10.0%; SIFCO's two largest customers and their subcontractors were 34% of fiscal-2025 sales.[13][26]
• Backlog that is not a contract. Mayville warns that awarded programs may carry no minimum purchase obligation and may be terminable on limited notice; SIFCO reported $119.2 million of backlog at September 30, 2025 while cautioning that orders can be modified or cancelled and backlog is not necessarily predictive of sales.[13][26]
• Single-asset concentration. A unique press, furnace or qualified site can sit behind a very large number of parts: Berkshire disclosed that a 2025 fire at Precision Castparts' Jenkintown facility affected more than 700 sole-sourced parts, though production was redistributed without stopping a customer's line.[62]
• Quality failures. Scrap, rework, recalls or loss of approval can outweigh years of profit — sharpest in aerospace forging and food-contact closures.
• Labor. Toolmakers, metallurgists and furnace technicians are scarce and getting scarcer: BLS counted roughly 55,200 U.S. tool-and-die-maker jobs in 2024 and projects an 11% decline through 2034, even as replacement demand persists.[63]
• Trade policy. Tariffs help some domestic sellers while raising inputs and inviting retaliation; origin and classification determine actual exposure.[53]
• Substitution and technology. Casting, machining, additive manufacturing, plastics, lightweighting and part-count reduction can each displace demand.

Child-specific: powder metallurgy carries the clearest structural risk — battery-electric vehicles contain fewer conventional drivetrain sintered parts, a headwind hybrids and soft-magnetic applications only partly offset.[45] Nonferrous and iron-steel forging carry aerospace/defense program concentration; stamping and roll forming carry construction and industrial cyclicality; closures carry plastic and alternative-packaging substitution. Custom roll forming also carries the level's highest reported injury rate, at 5.8 cases per 100 full-time-equivalent workers.[49]

10. How to invest and outlook

Public investors should treat the listed names as different exposures, not substitutes for the industry, and value the parent rather than apply a forging or stamping multiple to consolidated earnings. The broadest large-company exposure is in nonferrous forging (Howmet Aerospace, ATI); the closest listed specialist is tiny (SIFCO); the clearest single-child bets are diluted (voestalpine for roll forming, Dauch for powder metallurgy and forged vehicle components, Silgan for closures); and Berkshire Hathaway holds the marquee aerospace forging assets deep inside a conglomerate.[11][12][13][14][17][19][25] Because concentration is low and no pure play exists, indexing the industry is not possible; each ticker is a company-specific thesis.

Private investors have the more direct and, arguably, the better-matched routes — family succession, regional add-ons, contract-manufacturing platforms, equipment finance, sale-leasebacks and private credit — precisely because 1,671 firms and an HHI of 62.2 leave abundant independent targets.[2] Diligence is operational and consistent across children: utilization by asset, tooling ownership and portability, metal pass-through terms, backlog quality after cancellation rights, customer/program concentration, maintenance backlog, environmental and pension liabilities, and the share of earnings from value-added work. The right underwriting unit is not headline revenue but revenue by customer program and tool — annual volume, remaining program life, pass-through lag, contribution after freight, and the probability that the customer's next product generation keeps the part.

Reported conditions (mid-2026): aerospace, defense, turbine and data-center demand firm, with ATI's aerospace-and-defense forging revenue up 14%; automotive, heavy-vehicle and general-industrial demand softer, with Park-Ohio's forged-and-machined revenue down three consecutive years and Mayville's sales down 6.0%; closures defensive but with units off about 3% on weather; fabricated-metal capacity utilization at 76.9%, below its 78.5% long-run average, even as sector output ran 2.1% above the prior year; steel-mill prices up 16.9% year over year.[11][12][13][15][25][26][39][40]

Forward-looking judgment: the level is best understood as five different bets sharing one operating model. The best-positioned capacity is scarce, qualified, well-utilized, and pointed at structural tailwinds — aerospace and defense forging, data-center/solar/reshoring roll forming, and defensive closures. The most exposed is mature, automotive-tied powder metallurgy facing electrification. Across all five, tariffs and domestic-content rules help only operators who can secure metal, pass through cost, and keep expensive equipment productively loaded — and, as the upstream picture in Section 8 shows, securing metal is no longer a given. Investors should pay for qualified earning capacity through the cycle — not headline backlog, peak utilization, or metal-inflated revenue.

Sources

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