Agriculture, Construction, and Mining Machinery Manufacturing (U.S.)

NAICS 2022 code 3331. NAICS (the North American Industry Classification System) is the U.S. government's standard for grouping businesses by activity. This is a four-digit industry group — a rollup that sits one level above three five-digit industries: 33311 (agricultural implements), 33312 (construction machinery), and 33313 (mining and oil-and-gas field machinery).

1. Overview

This is the industry that builds America's heavy off-road machines — the powered iron that plants and harvests crops, moves earth and paves roads, and pulls minerals, oil, and gas out of the ground. If it is a big diesel (and, increasingly, electric) machine that works outdoors and off the public highway, it is probably built somewhere inside this group.

Three otherwise-different businesses share this roof because they share a manufacturing and economic skeleton: steel-heavy factories, off-road engines, sales through dealer networks, a high-margin aftermarket that recurs for a machine's decade-plus life, in-house finance arms, brutal operating leverage, and deep cyclicality. What differs is which cycle each rides — farm income, construction and infrastructure, or commodity prices.

The most important revision on this page: the three cycles did not de-synchronize in 2025. The traditional case for the rollup is that its children rarely trough together. They largely did. Farm-machinery factory shipments fell 15.8% to about $30.8 billion[6]; segment margins compressed hard on both the farm side (Deere's Production & Precision Ag to 15.4% from 21.7%[11]) and the construction side (Caterpillar's Construction Industries to 18.7% from 24.2%[12]; Deere's Construction & Forestry to 9.0% from 15.5%[11]); and on the extraction side U.S. upstream investment fell about 6% to roughly $420 billion[35] while global critical-minerals investment fell 9%[27]. Two shared shocks — interest rates and Section 232 tariffs — pressed on all three at once. The children still run on different master variables, but do not underwrite this group as internally hedged.

The single most important structural fact for an investor is unchanged: this group is anchored by two American heavy-equipment champions, each straddling two of the three children. Deere & Company (~$45.7 billion of FY2025 revenue[10]) is #1 in agriculture and a major force in construction; Caterpillar (~$65 billion of 2025 revenue[12]) is #1 in construction and the dominant U.S.-listed name in mining. Much of the group's investable value flows through those two companies — with a very different ownership picture underneath each child (public pure-plays on the farm side; foreign and private leaders in construction and mining; a genuine U.S. public market only on the oil-and-gas edge).

2. What's inside — the three child industries and how they differ

The distinctive value of the rollup is the contrast. The three children are grouped for their shared manufacturing DNA, but they diverge on size, which cycle drives them, how they reach the customer, how concentrated they are, who owns them, and how you get exposure.

USDA = U.S. Department of Agriculture; HHI = Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (a 0–10,000 concentration gauge, higher = more concentrated); GPS = Global Positioning System; LNG = liquefied natural gas; ADR = American Depositary Receipt, a U.S.-traded proxy for a foreign stock; ETF = exchange-traded fund (a basket of stocks that trades like one); EBITDA = earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.

The through-line. Three things bind these children into a real group rather than an accounting bucket. First, shared economics — every child is a cyclical, dealer-distributed, capital-goods maker whose most durable profit comes not from the first sale but from decades of parts and service on its installed base (the "razor-and-blades" model), a pattern quantified most clearly in mining, where aftermarket is about two-thirds of equipment revenue.[28][31] Second, shared inputs and rules — steel dominates the bill of materials, the same EPA off-road diesel standards shape every machine[45], and the same Section 232 steel-and-aluminum tariffs — raised from 25% to 50% in June 2025 — raise every maker's costs.[46][47] Third, shared champions — Deere and Caterpillar each own two of the three children, so a bet on this group is heavily a bet on those two firms plus the cycle each child rides.

The contrast that matters — and where it broke down. The children still differ most in what moves them and how you own them: agriculture is the biggest child and sits in a genuine downturn; construction is second and its global cycle is read as bottoming; mining/oil-and-gas is the smallest and is really two opposite stories under one code. But the comforting version of that story — that the three take turns — did not hold in 2025, when tariffs, rates, and channel destocking compressed margins across the group at the same time. Where the children now genuinely disagree is inside construction: the industry-level forecast calls 2025 the bottom of a global downturn[24][25], while U.S. factory shipments for the same code climbed from $35.4 billion in 2021 to $49.2 billion in 2025[7]. Both can be true — American plants export and serve a domestic infrastructure build-out that the global average does not capture — but a reader should not treat "construction is at the bottom" as a statement about U.S. output.

3. How big it is (the rollup figures)

Histometrics' ground-truth federal statistics for the combined U.S. manufacturing group:

Average pay works out to roughly $75,000 per worker[2] — solidly above the private-sector average, reflecting skilled machining, welding, assembly, and engineering work. That group average sits between its children: agricultural implements averages about $70,000[3] and mining/oil-and-gas machinery about $87,500[5], the latter reflecting pressure-critical, heavily engineered products. Even the "small" businesses here are large: the Small Business Administration's size standards run to 1,250 employees for farm, construction, and oil-and-gas machinery and 900 for mining machinery.[9]

The children add up cleanly. Receipts ($52.5B + $41.2B + $16.3B), employment (90,207 + 64,700 + 38,962), and locations (1,266 + 651 + 888) sum to the group totals (to rounding). The only reconciling item is the firm count: the three children list 2,393 firms between them, but the group shows 2,373, because about 20 firms operate in more than one child and are counted once here — Deere (agriculture and construction), Caterpillar (construction and mining), and CNH (agriculture and construction) above all.[1][3][4][5]

The 2022 benchmark is now stale — and we do not restate a group total. Two of the three children have a more current monthly Census shipments series, and they point in opposite directions: farm machinery ran about $30.8 billion in 2025, down 15.8% from roughly $36.6 billion in 2024[6], while construction machinery ran about $49.2 billion in 2025 against $46.9 billion in 2024 and $35.4 billion in 2021.[7] Those two series cannot be added into a 2025 group figure: the farm series covers only the 333111 detail industry (not all of 33311), there is no equivalent series for the mining/oil-and-gas child, and the numbers are derived annual sums of seasonally adjusted months rather than Economic Census totals. Read $109.92 billion as a 2022 benchmark, not today's run rate.

Even the counts disagree across programs. County Business Patterns puts 2023 construction-machinery employment at 64,700[4], while a separate Bureau of Labor Statistics benchmark series reported 73,100 jobs in that industry in March 2025.[8] That is a difference of period and statistical program, not a contradiction — but it is a reminder that no single federal count is definitive at this level.

Concentration — and why the rollup looks less concentrated than its children. The four largest firms hold 40.0% of receipts (the four-firm concentration ratio, CR4); the top eight 50.9%; the top 20 62.6%; the top 50 72.1%.[1] The HHI is suppressed in the federal data for this group, so we do not report a value. Notably, the group's CR4 (40%) is lower than two of its three children (agriculture 54.6%, construction 54.5%) and higher than the third (mining/oil-gas 24.4%). This is an arithmetic artifact, not a sign of a fragmented market: merging industries with different leaders — Deere tops agriculture, Caterpillar tops construction — dilutes measured concentration, because each giant's #1 position becomes a smaller slice of the blended universe. The same dilution happens one level down, inside 33313, whose blended HHI of 249 is lower than either of its own children (mining 296, oil-and-gas 383).[5] Real market power lives in the hardest-to-build machines: three firms account for roughly 75% of underground mining trucks and 88% of underground loaders[30], and scale shows up in the plants too — the 29 construction-machinery establishments with 500 or more employees hold 49.8% of that child's workforce.[4]

Undercount and scope caveats (read $109.92B correctly). Unlike sectors dominated by sole proprietors or informal operators, this is corporate-scale manufacturing that federal statistics measure well — there is little small- or individual-ownership undercount here. The caveats run the other way:

• These are U.S. factory figures, not the U.S. market. The $109.92B is the value of machinery shipped from American plants (foreign-owned ones included) — not what U.S. buyers spend, and not the global revenue of the big brands. A large share of what Americans buy is imported (compact tractors from Kubota, excavators from Komatsu), and a large share of what U.S. plants build is exported — including roughly a fifth of oil-and-gas equipment output.[5]
• The global footprint dwarfs the domestic line. Caterpillar reported about $65 billion of worldwide revenue in 2025, of which Construction Industries alone was $25.1 billion[12] — more than half the entire construction child — and its Resource Industries (mining) segment was $13.6 billion in 2024[13], three times the whole U.S. mining-machinery line. Deere reported about $45.7 billion[10]. On the foreign side, Epiroc's and Sandvik's mining businesses each ran roughly SEK 63.6 billion (~$6 billion)[29] — comfortably larger on their own than the entire U.S. mining-machinery industry. A single company's global revenue can exceed a whole child's U.S. figure without contradiction.
• Aftermarket and services leak out of the count. Parts, rebuilds, and field service — roughly two-thirds of mining-equipment revenue, and the profit engine in every child — are often booked as wholesale or repair services rather than manufacturing, understating the group's true economic weight.[28][31] Caterpillar is deliberately steering that way company-wide, targeting services revenue of about $24 billion in 2025 rising to $30 billion by 2030.[31]
• Scope exclusions cut both ways. Forklifts and material-handling gear sit in other NAICS codes; oilfield services (the crews and rigs that actually drill and frac wells, NAICS 213111/213112) are a separate, much larger activity outside this group — which is why SLB ($35.7 billion), Baker Hughes ($27.7 billion), and Halliburton ($22.2 billion) book 2025 revenues that dwarf the $11.89 billion U.S. oil-and-gas machinery line.[5][41] But note one internal nuance: the giant surface haul trucks and hydraulic shovels of an open-pit mine are booked under construction machinery (333120) — inside this group — so at the four-digit level the group captures more "mining equipment" than its mining child alone suggests.[5]

Read $109.92 billion as "value made in U.S. agriculture-, construction-, and mining-machinery plants in 2022," not "the American heavy-equipment economy."

4. The investable universe (where value concentrates across the children)

Value in this group is concentrated far more in a handful of large firms than the 40% CR4 suggests once you account for the different leaders — and it concentrates differently in each child. Tickers and scale figures are confined to this section and section 10; treat the scale numbers as recent and approximate — they move constantly.

The two anchors (most of the group's investable value runs through these).

Then, child by child, where the rest of the value sits:

• Agriculture (33311) — the deepest public bench. Beyond Deere: CNH Industrial (CNH; Case IH, New Holland — ~$16B market cap, and also a ~$3.0B construction business[14][44]) and AGCO (AGCO; Fendt, Massey Ferguson — $10.1B of 2025 revenue at a 7.7% adjusted operating margin, the largest listed pure-play farm-equipment maker[15]). Japan's Kubota (U.S. compact-tractor leader) is the big foreign owner; a ~1,000-strong tail of private "shortline" specialists (Kinze, Vermeer) fills out the field, plus listed specialists Alamo (ALG), Lindsay (LNN), and Titan International (TWI). The lawn-and-garden edge has no pure-play stock — Toro (TTC) is closest, and even there homeowner equipment was only ~19% of its $4.52B FY2025 sales.[16]
• Construction (33312) — a proxy, not a pure-play. There is no clean listed "construction machinery" stock of size; Caterpillar is the proxy, with Terex (TEX), Oshkosh (OSK), Manitowoc (MTW), and Astec (ASTE) for narrower exposure. Many leaders are foreign or private — Komatsu (~$26.6B group revenue, the global #2), China's XCMG (~$12.8B) and SANY (~$10.8B), plus Hitachi, Volvo CE, and privately held Liebherr and JCB.[42] A distinctive "sideways" route is the equipment-rental names — United Rentals (URI), Herc (HRI), London-listed Ashtead — and it is more central than it sounds: rental companies own roughly 60% of U.S. construction equipment in place and invested $21.0 billion in new equipment in 2024, so the rental firm is increasingly the manufacturer's first customer.[22]
• Mining & oil-gas field machinery (33313) — two different doors. The mining half has no U.S.-listed pure-play: the specialists (Sweden's Epiroc and Sandvik, the U.K.'s Weir, Finland's Metso, Denmark's FLSmidth) all list abroad, reachable mainly as over-the-counter (OTC) depositary receipts — Epiroc only established sponsored receipts in 2025[28] — with Caterpillar as the diversified U.S. proxy. Terex and Astec are U.S.-listed crushing-and-screening makers but tilt toward construction aggregates rather than metals mining. The oil-and-gas half is the opposite — a liquid U.S. public market: purest-exposure makers NOV (NOV; ~$8.7B of 2025 revenue and a $4.34B Energy Equipment backlog, 94% international and 58% offshore[37]), TechnipFMC (FTI; ~$9.9B revenue against a ~$16.6B backlog[38]), Cactus (WHD; ~$1.08B[39]), Innovex (INVX), Forum (FET), and Oil States (OIS), plus diversified majors SLB, Baker Hughes (BKR), and Halliburton (HAL), and two sector ETFs (OIH, XES).

NYSE = New York Stock Exchange; OTC = over-the-counter.

The pattern across the group: the durable profit pool in every child is the installed base — whoever has placed the most machines and runs the densest dealer/service network earns the most defensible, least-cyclical money. That is why the majors fight to place iron even at thin new-equipment margins.

5. How the money works

All three children run the same core business model, which is what justifies the group: a cyclical capital-goods maker with a large, higher-margin recurring aftermarket. The economics here are capital-goods economics — this is not a utility, a real-estate trust, or a miner itself, so rate base, funds-from-operations, and all-in sustaining-cost language do not apply. What does apply:

• Cyclicality to three different masters — that can still align. Agriculture tracks farm income and crop prices; construction tracks infrastructure, housing, and interest rates; mining/oil-gas tracks commodity prices. Because the masters differ, the children usually de-synchronize — but 2025 showed that a common rate-and-tariff shock can compress all three at once.
• Operating leverage, visible in the numbers. Heavy fixed factory costs mean profits swing hard with volume, and 2025 put it on display: Deere's Production & Precision Ag margin fell to 15.4% from 21.7% and its Construction & Forestry margin to 9.0% from 15.5%[11]; Caterpillar's Construction Industries margin to 18.7% from 24.2%[12]; CNH's agriculture segment to 6.2% adjusted EBIT from 10.5%, with construction at 2.3%[14]. These are not comparable NAICS margins — different geographies, segment definitions, and adjustment policies — but as cycle indicators they point the same way.
• Underbuilding is the downcycle's signature move. Makers deliberately build fewer machines than dealers sell to draw down channel inventory — the mechanism behind the farm child's 15.8% shipments drop, with farm-maker inventories falling from a ~$7.2 billion peak in late 2022 to ~$5.7 billion by December 2025.[6][18]
• Distribution differs more than the model does. Agriculture sells through dense independent dealer networks (Deere alone ~1,600 U.S./Canada ag locations[11]); construction sells through dealers but increasingly to rental companies, which own about 60% of the U.S. fleet[22]; mining and oilfield gear moves through direct sales, dealers, and OEM-certified service. The channel changes who holds the inventory risk — and how visible true end demand is.
• The aftermarket annuity, quantified. Every machine in the field throws off a decade-plus stream of parts, wear components, and service — higher-margin and far less cyclical than new-machine sales. It is roughly two-thirds of mining-equipment revenue (Epiroc's 2025 mix was 66% aftermarket to 34% equipment)[28][31], and about 80% of Forum's 2025 oil-side revenue came from consumables and activity-based equipment.[40] Caterpillar is targeting company-wide services of ~$24 billion in 2025 rising to $30 billion by 2030.[31]
• Short-cycle versus long-cycle backlog. The oil-and-gas child is the one place where visibility is genuinely bifurcated: shale and frac gear turn with the rig count within months, while subsea and LNG equipment is ordered years ahead — TechnipFMC's ~$16.6 billion backlog and NOV's $4.34 billion (about 49% converting in 2026) are the classic cushions.[37][38] Agriculture and mining are more uniformly build-to-backlog capital goods.
• Steel is the dominant input — and tariffs feed straight in. Section 232 duties on steel and aluminum were raised from 25% to 50% in June 2025 and extended to hundreds of derivative products before targeted relief for construction and agriculture equipment arrived in mid-2026.[46][47] The cost is concrete: Deere absorbed ~$600 million of tariff cost in 2025 and guided to ~$1.2 billion for 2026, AGCO ~$40 million rising toward ~$110 million[18], and Caterpillar reported $2.1 billion of unfavorable manufacturing costs and $817 million of unfavorable price realization in 2025, much of it tariff-driven.[12]
• Margins vary more within a child than between children. On the oil side, NOV's Energy Equipment segment earned a 10.0% operating margin while Cactus reported a 32.7% adjusted EBITDA margin[37][39] — different measures, but the gap makes the point: differentiated, qualified, pressure-critical products earn multiples of what commodity fabrication earns, in every child.
• Captive finance. Deere, CNH, AGCO, and Caterpillar run in-house lenders that finance dealers and buyers, keeping machines moving when bank credit tightens — while adding credit and interest-rate risk.
• The recurring-revenue growth story. Across all three, the swing factor is converting one-time hardware buyers into ongoing, higher-margin customers via automation, electrification, precision/digital layers — per-acre subscriptions on the farm, autonomous haul trucks in mining, connected fleets on job sites. If it works, the group's through-cycle margins re-rate upward.

Metrics to watch (common to all three): order intake and book-to-bill (new orders ÷ revenue — the leading cycle indicator), backlog (revenue visibility), aftermarket revenue mix (the higher, the more durable the earnings), capacity utilization and incremental margins, and dealer/rental/channel inventory (which can mask true end demand).

6. What drives demand

Demand in every child is derived — it follows how much farming, building, or extracting the economy is doing — but the specific drivers differ, and that is the point of the rollup:

• Agriculture: net farm income and crop prices are the master variable. USDA forecasts 2026 net farm income of $153.4 billion (−0.7% nominally) and net cash farm income of $158.5 billion (+3.0%), while sector debt rises 5.2% to $624.7 billion and working capital falls 9.2% — aggregate income holding up while the liquidity of the crop producers who buy big machines tightens.[19] Beyond income: fleet age and replacement cycles (machines last decades), interest rates (nearly everything is financed), and farm policy (the farm bill, crop insurance, biofuel mandates).[17]
• Construction: nonresidential and residential building (rate-sensitive), the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) of 2021 in its peak build-out phase[20] — within which the Federal Highway Administration identified $350.8 billion for highway programs through fiscal 2026[21] — reshoring megaprojects (data centers, chip fabs, LNG terminals), rental-fleet renewal[22], and fleet replacement.
• Mining machinery: metals prices and mining capital budgets; the world's top-20 miners' capex is projected to grow ~3.8% in 2026, aimed largely at copper, lithium, and aluminium, and Epiroc's 2025 orders rose 7% organically on copper and gold demand.[26][28] But the critical-minerals tailwind is commodity-specific, not generic: overall critical-mineral investment fell 9% in 2025, with copper-focused spending up 8% while lithium specialists cut investment by roughly 40%.[27] Coal-linked gear faces structural decline — U.S. production ran 533 million short tons in 2025 but power-sector coal consumption is forecast down 9% in 2026 and is already down 64% from its 2007 peak.[33][34]
• Oil-and-gas machinery: E&P budgets and rig count. U.S. upstream investment fell about 6% to roughly $420 billion in 2025[35], and — critically — record output no longer implies record equipment orders: U.S. crude production hit a record 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025 even with Lower-48 rig activity 5% below 2024.[36] The bright spot is long-cycle: EIA projects LNG exports rising from 15.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 17.4 in 2026 and 18.6 in 2027, driving turbomachinery and gas-processing orders.[36]
• Shared, structural: labor scarcity pushes automation on all three sides — in a 2025 contractor survey, 92% reported difficulty filling positions and 45% reported project delays from worker shortages, which supports demand for easier-to-operate machines while delaying the projects those machines would work on.[23] Electrification and digitization reshape what gets bought more than how much.

7. Regulation

This group is shaped less by price/entry regulation than by emissions rules, trade policy, and safety standards — and, tellingly, the same forces push all three children the same way: toward cleaner engines and electrification.

• Off-road diesel emissions (the shared backbone). The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) nonroad diesel standards through Tier 4 Final (phased in through 2015) cut soot and nitrogen oxides ~90%+ and raised machine cost across every child — and are a core reason makers are moving to battery-electric equipment.[45][50]
• Steel and aluminum tariffs (shared cost shock). Section 232 duties rose from 25% to 50% in June 2025 and were extended to hundreds of derivative products, with targeted relief for construction and agriculture equipment arriving in mid-2026 — a live, politically driven input to every maker's cost base.[46][47]
• Child-specific regimes. Agriculture's defining recent fight is right to repair — a July 2026 FTC (Federal Trade Commission) settlement requiring Deere to give farmers and independent shops the same diagnostic software and repair tools as its dealers for ten years, reshaping high-margin aftermarket-service economics[48] — while its lawn edge faces California's CARB rule requiring most new small off-road engines to be zero-emission from model year 2024.[49] Construction machinery is shaped by OSHA (Occupational Safety and Health Administration) worksite rules, notably respirable-silica limits that govern dust suppression and operating instructions for crushing, milling, drilling, and grading machines.[52] Mining machinery must clear MSHA (Mine Safety and Health Administration) approval under 30 CFR Part 7 for underground use — a real barrier with teeth, since MSHA can require retrofits or revoke approvals[50]; offshore oil-and-gas gear must meet API (American Petroleum Institute) blowout-preventer and well-control standards enforced by the BSEE (Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement).[51]

Autonomy — driverless tractors, autonomous haul trucks, robotic machines — runs ahead of settled regulation everywhere in the group.

8. Consolidation

The group is a concentrated-at-the-top, fragmented-at-the-bottom structure in every child: a handful of majors own the hardest-to-build, highest-value machines, above a long tail of small component and consumables shops. Consolidation has followed one strategic logic across all three — gain scale, broaden the product bundle, and add recurring aftermarket and digital revenue to offset the cycle — and it has repeatedly crossed child lines, which is why the two anchors straddle the group:

• Deere → construction: the ~$5.2 billion purchase of Germany's Wirtgen (2017) to lead road-construction machinery.[53]
• Caterpillar → mining: Bucyrus (2011, ~$8.6–8.8 billion), moving Caterpillar deep into the mining child.[54]
• Komatsu → mining: Joy Global (2017, ~$3.7 billion); and Atlas Copco spun off Epiroc as a listed pure-play in 2018.[54]
• Within agriculture: AGCO assembled from Massey Ferguson, Fendt, and Valtra; CNH from Case and New Holland.
• Within oil-and-gas: SLB's ~$7.8 billion acquisition of ChampionX (closed July 2025); the Dril-Quip / Innovex merger (2024); and Cactus taking 65% operational control of Baker Hughes's Surface Pressure Control business on 1 January 2026.[55]

Barriers to entry are steep and widening everywhere — capital-heavy plants, decades-deep dealer networks, brand loyalty, and now a technology moat as the majors buy GPS, sensor, and autonomy startups to avoid being disintermediated by software players. The moat in all three children is the same combination: installed base + service network + certification, not product alone. The sharpest competitive challenge across the group is low-cost foreign entrants — Chinese OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) climbing the global construction rankings (XCMG ~$12.8 billion, SANY ~$10.8 billion against Komatsu's ~$26.6 billion)[42] and now moving up-market in mining, plus low-cost tractor makers at the small end of agriculture.

9. Risks

• Deep cyclicality (the defining risk in all three). Earnings can fall sharply peak-to-trough; agriculture is in a downturn now, construction's global cycle is climbing off a 2025 low, and mining/oil-gas can stall within a quarter or two on a commodity-price drop.[17][24][27][35]
• The diversification is weaker than the rollup implies. The case for owning the group is three demand engines, but in 2025 all three compressed at once — rates, tariffs, and channel destocking hit farm, construction, and extraction budgets together.[6][12][14][35] Do not underwrite this group as internally hedged.
• Channel-inventory whiplash. Overbuilding into a downturn forces painful destocking and production cuts across every child — visible in the farm-maker inventory drawdown from ~$7.2 billion to ~$5.7 billion[18] and in dealer and rental destocking that cuts factory orders ahead of end demand.[14]
• Trade, tariffs, and sanctions. Fifty-percent steel/aluminum tariffs inflate input costs for all[47]; retaliation can cut farm customers' income; export controls can close foreign markets for mining and oilfield gear overnight.
• Technology-transition risk cutting both ways. Right-to-repair erodes a high-margin service stream on the farm side[48]; electrification and autonomy force heavy R&D (research and development) spend across the group, and a laggard can lose share even in a strong market. Automation also changes who captures lifecycle value — closed control architectures strengthen the OEM's grip on its installed base, OEM-agnostic software weakens it.
• Structural demand questions, with opposite signs. The energy transition is a tailwind for copper- and gold-linked mining gear and a headwind for coal-specific equipment[27][33]; stronger recycling could cut required new mining investment by around 30% through 2040[27]; and for oil-and-gas machinery, long-run decarbonization plus E&P capital discipline caps activity even when prices are healthy.[35]
• Labor and supply chain. These are machinist- and welder-dependent businesses; BLS projects about 34,200 annual openings for machinists and tool-and-die makers over 2024–2034, largely replacement demand[57], while contractor labor shortages delay the end-market projects that pull machines.[23]
• Customer and supplier concentration. Suppliers whose fortunes ride on a few large makers — and makers facing a few large, consolidating buyers (miners, E&P companies, rental fleets, big-box retailers on the lawn edge) — both face buyer-power risk.
• For the public-market investor specifically: the mining half's pure-play exposure is mostly foreign listings and OTC receipts, adding currency and liquidity considerations the U.S.-listed names avoid — and the available oil-services ETFs are not equipment funds. As of 1 June 2026, OIH held SLB at 20.78% and Baker Hughes at 11.62% against just 3.42% in NOV.[43]

E&P = exploration and production (the oil-and-gas companies that buy field machinery).

10. How to invest, and the outlook

The practical takeaway: this group is best owned through its two anchors plus a view on which child's cycle you want — with the caveat that the cycles proved less independent in 2025 than the rollup story assumes.

Public-market routes.

• The anchors: Deere (DE) gives you the #1 farm franchise plus a ~$11.4 billion construction business and precision-ag optionality[11]; Caterpillar (CAT) gives you the #1 construction franchise plus the cleanest U.S.-listed mining exposure[12][13]. Between them they cover two of the three children each.
• Agriculture tilt: add CNH (ag + construction) or AGCO (the pure-play), with Lindsay (LNN), Alamo (ALG), and Titan International (TWI) for narrower angles and Toro (TTC) for the turf edge.
• Construction tilt: Caterpillar as the proxy, Terex / Oshkosh / Manitowoc / Astec for narrower bets, and the equipment-rental names (United Rentals URI, Herc HRI, Ashtead) to play machine usage rather than manufacture — a route that reaches roughly 60% of the U.S. fleet.[22]
• Mining / oil-gas tilt: for mining, mostly foreign shares (Epiroc, Sandvik, Weir, Metso, FLSmidth) or Caterpillar, with no dedicated U.S.-listed mining-equipment ETF; for oil-and-gas, a liquid U.S. market — NOV, TechnipFMC, Cactus, Innovex, Forum, Oil States for pure exposure, majors SLB / Baker Hughes / Halliburton for scale, and ETFs OIH / XES for one-ticker coverage, read with the caveat that they are far more services funds than equipment funds.[43]
• There is no dedicated pure-play ETF for the group as a whole; broad industrials and agribusiness funds hold Deere, Caterpillar, and peers. Dividends are modest (Deere yields ~1%[44]) — this is a total-return, cyclically-timed group, not an income one; entry point matters as much as company quality. Value it on a through-the-cycle price-to-earnings multiple (a low multiple at a peak is a trap), free-cash-flow yield, and the backlog and channel-inventory signals.

Private-market routes. Most of the group's 2,373 firms are small and private — a fragmented base well suited to private-equity "buy-and-build" roll-ups and to direct ownership of dealerships (private equity has been rolling up ag- and construction-equipment dealers), independent rental operators, component and hydraulics suppliers, wear-parts and consumables makers, and rebuild/field-service businesses. These capture the same durable aftermarket economics that make the majors attractive, often at more accessible scale, with credible strategic exits to the public consolidators. The best targets look alike across all three children: proprietary or certified designs, a large active installed base, high recurring parts content, and limited dependence on one crop region, basin, or mine.

Outlook (forward-looking judgment, not fact). The old framing — three children comfortably out of phase — needs qualifying. Agriculture sits in the trough of a downturn (soft crop-producer liquidity despite steady aggregate farm income[19], inventories being worked down[18], tariffs raising costs, 2025 shipments down nearly 16%[6]) — historically the setup for the next up-leg as the fleet ages and demand defers, not a permanent state. Construction is where the evidence genuinely conflicts: the global forecast reads 2025 as the low with a rebound from 2026 on IIJA build-out, replacement demand, and eventual rate relief[24][25], while U.S. factory shipments for the same code rose through 2025[7] even as segment margins fell[12] — read it as a domestic-volume-holding, margin-under-pressure story rather than a clean bottom. Mining/oil-gas remains two-track, but more selectively than the slogan: copper- and gold-led equipment demand against a coal decline and an uneven critical-minerals build (copper spending up 8%, lithium down ~40%)[27], and soft short-cycle shale against a strong long-cycle offshore-and-LNG backlog into 2026–27.[36][37][38] Structurally, the same swing factor runs through all three: whether the incumbents — Deere and Caterpillar above all, since they anchor the group — convert one-time buyers into recurring precision-ag, autonomy, and connected-machine customers. If they do, the group's through-cycle margins and valuation re-rate upward; if right-to-repair, low-cost imports, and technology-transition costs win the margin fight, they do not. The cycle will drive the next year; the technology transition will decide the decade.

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Sources

1. U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 Economic Census, Concentration by Largest Firms (NAICS 3331): receipts $109.92B; 2,373 firms; CR4 40.0%, CR8 50.9%, CR20 62.6%, CR50 72.1%; HHI suppressed. Histometrics-ingested federal statistics. https://data.census.gov/
2. U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2023 (NAICS 3331): employment 193,869; establishments 2,805; annual payroll $14.57B. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/cbp.html
3. Child-industry breakdown — 33311 Agricultural Implement Manufacturing (2022 receipts $52.46B; 1,122 firms; CR4 54.6%, CR8 63.5%, CR20 74.3%, CR50 84.1%, HHI suppressed; 2023 employment 90,207; 1,266 establishments; payroll $6.28B; ~$70,000 average pay; commercial turf equipment classified in 333111), from the 33311 primer citing the 2022 Economic Census and CBP 2023. https://data.census.gov/; https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/cbp.html
4. Child-industry breakdown — 33312 Construction Machinery Manufacturing (2022 receipts $41.2B; 561 firms; CR4 54.5%, CR8 66%, CR20 77.8%, CR50 88.1%; HHI 857.9; 2023 employment 64,700; 651 establishments; payroll $4.88B; 29 establishments with 500+ employees holding 32,238 workers, 49.8% of employment), from the 33312 primer citing the 2022 Economic Census and CBP 2023. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census.html; https://data.census.gov/table/CBP2023.CB2300CBP?q=333120
5. Child-industry breakdown — 33313 Mining, Oil & Gas Field Machinery Manufacturing (2022 receipts $16.28B; 710 firms; CR4 24.4%, CR8 32.3%, CR20 47.6%, CR50 66.7%, HHI 249; 2023 employment 38,962; 888 establishments; payroll $3.41B; ~$87,500 average pay; mining child 333131 $4.39B / HHI 296 and oil-and-gas child 333132 $11.89B / HHI 383; surface haul trucks classified in 333120; oilfield services in 213111/213112; ~20% of oil-and-gas equipment output exported), from the 33313 primer citing the 2022 Economic Census and CBP 2023. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census.html; https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/cbp.html
6. U.S. Census Bureau, M3 Manufacturers' Shipments (NAICS 333111), via FRED: 2025 shipments ~$30.8B, down 15.8% from ~$36.6B in 2024. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/U33AVS
7. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Manufacturers' Shipments: Construction Machinery (A33CVS) (2025 $49.2B; 2024 $46.9B; 2021 $35.4B — summed monthly seasonally adjusted). 2026. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/A33CVS
8. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025 CES Benchmark Tables (March 2025 construction-machinery manufacturing employment 73,100). 2025. https://www.bls.gov/ces/publications/benchmark/cesbmart25-tables.htm
9. U.S. Small Business Administration, Table of Small Business Size Standards (333111, 333120, and 333132 = 1,250 employees; 333131 = 900 employees). https://www.sba.gov/document/support-table-size-standards
10. Deere & Company, "Deere Reports Net Income of $5.027 Billion for Fiscal Year 2025" (net sales & revenues ~$45.7B). https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/deere-reports-net-income-of-1-065-billion-for-fourth-quarter-5-027-billion-for-fiscal-year-302626652.html
11. Deere & Company, 2025 Form 10-K (Production & Precision Ag operating margin 15.4% vs 21.7%; Construction & Forestry net sales ~$11.4B at a 9.0% operating margin vs 15.5%; ~1,600 U.S./Canada ag dealer locations and ~450 North American construction/forestry locations). SEC, 2025. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315189/000110465925122321/de-20251102x10k.htm
12. Caterpillar Inc., 2025 Form 10-K (total revenue ~$65B; Construction Industries $25.1B with segment margin 18.7% vs 24.2%; $2.1B unfavorable manufacturing costs and $817M unfavorable price realization, much attributed to tariffs). SEC, 2026. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18230/000001823026000008/cat-20251231.htm
13. Caterpillar Inc., "Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2024 Results" (Resource Industries / mining segment revenue $13.6B). https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/caterpillar-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2024-results-302364343.html
14. CNH Industrial N.V., 2025 Form 10-K (Agriculture segment adjusted EBIT margin 6.2% vs 10.5%; construction revenue ~$3.0B at a 2.3% adjusted EBIT margin; dealer destocking and tariff impacts). SEC, 2026. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1567094/000156709426000006/cnhi-20251231.htm
15. AGCO Corporation, 2025 Form 10-K (2025 sales $10.082B; adjusted operating margin 7.7%). SEC, 2026. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/880266/000088026626000010/agco-20251231.htm
16. The Toro Company, Form 10-K (FY2025) (net sales $4.52B; Residential $858M, ~19% of sales, down 14%; Residential EBIT margin 4.2% vs 7.9%). SEC, 2025. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/737758/000073775825000115/ttc-20251031.htm
17. Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM), "U.S. Ag Tractor and Combine Sales — December 2025" (tractors −9.9%; combines −35.6%; four-wheel-drive tractors −41.6%). https://www.aem.org/getattachment/9ee3a193-4c55-4c47-8e3a-ec1237b41f09/US-Month-Ag-Report-2025-12.pdf
18. farmdoc daily (Univ. of Illinois), "The U.S. Farm Machinery & Equipment Market: Sales, Inventories, and Tariff Headwinds" (farm-maker inventories $7.2B peak late 2022 → $5.7B Dec 2025; Deere tariff cost ~$600M/2025 → ~$1.2B/2026; AGCO ~$40M → ~$110M). Feb. 2026. https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/02/the-u-s-farm-machinery-equipment-market-sales-inventories-and-tariff-headwinds.html
19. USDA Economic Research Service, "Farm Sector Income & Finances: Highlights from the Farm Income Forecast" (2026 net farm income $153.4B, −0.7%; net cash farm income $158.5B, +3.0%; debt $624.7B, +5.2%; working capital −9.2%). May 2026. https://ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/farm-sector-income-finances/highlights-from-the-farm-income-forecast
20. The Bond Buyer, "Transportation infrastructure rides into final year of IIJA with record spending" ($1.2T IIJA, peak execution). 2025. https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/transportation-infrastructure-rides-into-final-year-of-iija-with-record-spending-expected
21. Federal Highway Administration, FHWA Strategic Plan ($350.8B for highway programs through FY2026). 2023. https://highways.dot.gov/sites/fhwa.dot.gov/files/2023-05/FHWA_Strategic_Plan_05.25.23.pdf
22. American Rental Association, ARA Position Paper: Depreciation and Expensing (rental companies own ~60% of U.S. construction equipment; $21.0B new equipment investment in 2024). 2025. https://ararental.org/Portals/0/Images/2025/ARA%20Position%20Paper%20Depreciation%20and%20Expensing_Final.pdf
23. Associated General Contractors of America, "Workforce Shortages Delay Projects" (92% difficulty filling positions; 45% project delays). 2025. https://news.agc.org/workforce-development/workforce-shortages-delay-projects/
24. Construction Briefing / Off-Highway Research, "Global construction equipment sales to hit low in 2025, recover from 2026." 2025. https://www.constructionbriefing.com/news/global-construction-equipment-sales-to-hit-low-in-2025-recover-from-2026/8054705.article
25. Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM), "As Non-Road Equipment Manufacturers Face Challenges, Hope Builds for 2026 Recovery." 2025. https://www.aem.org/news/as-offhighway-equipment-manufacturers-face-challenges-hope-builds-for-2026-recovery
26. International Energy Agency, "Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 — Executive Summary"; Mining Technology, "Top 20 miners' CapEx to grow by 3.8% in 2026." https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2026/executive-summary; https://www.mining-technology.com/analyst-comment/top-20-miners-capex/
27. International Energy Agency, "Global Critical Minerals Outlook — Overview of outlook for key minerals" (critical-mineral investment down 9% in 2025, copper-focused spending up 8%, lithium specialists down ~40%; 25% copper supply deficit projected for 2035; recycling could cut required new mining investment ~30% through 2040). https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2025/overview-of-outlook-for-key-minerals
28. Epiroc, "Annual and Sustainability Report 2025 — Equipment & Service" (aftermarket 66% of revenue vs 34% equipment); "Epiroc publishes 2025 Annual and Sustainability Report" (2025 orders +7% organic, driven by copper and gold); "Epiroc establishes sponsored American Depositary Receipts in United States" (2025). https://reports.epirocgroup.com/annual-and-sustainability-report-2025/administration-report/equipment-service/; https://www.epirocgroup.com/en/media/corporate-press-releases/2026/20260319-epiroc-publishes-2025-annual-and-sustainability-report.html; https://www.epirocgroup.com/en/media/corporate-press-releases/2025/20250424-epiroc-establishes-sponsored-american-depositary-receipts-in-united-states.html
29. Aggregates Business, "Strong mining demand helps Epiroc to 'record high' revenues & orders in 2024" (revenue SEK 63.6bn, ~$6bn); Sandvik AB, "Annual Report 2024 — Sandvik Mining and Rock Solutions" (mining revenue SEK 63.6bn, ~$6bn). https://www.aggbusiness.com/strong-mining-demand-helps-epiroc-to-record-high-revenues-orders-in-2024/; https://www.annualreport.sandvik/en/2024/operations/sandvik-mining-and-rock-solutions/overview.html
30. GMInsights / GlobeNewswire, "Underground Mining Equipment Industry Report 2025–2030 — Sandvik, Epiroc and Caterpillar Dominate with 75% Market Share" (global mining-equipment market ~$62bn in 2024; five firms ~54% of the broad market; ~75% of underground trucks and 88% of underground loaders). 2026. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/02/18/3240455/0/en/Underground-Mining-Equipment-Industry-Report-2025-2030-Sandvik-Epiroc-and-Caterpillar-Dominate-with-75-Market-Share.html
31. Zacks / Yahoo Finance, "Caterpillar vs. Komatsu: Which Equipment Stock Has the Edge Now?" (mining-equipment aftermarket ~two-thirds of revenue; Caterpillar services target $24bn in 2025 rising to $30bn by 2030). 2026. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/caterpillar-vs-komatsu-equipment-stock-143900555.html
32. GlobalData, autonomous and electric mining-truck market analysis (3,832 autonomous haul trucks operating as of mid-2025; over a third of new haul-truck purchases expected by 2026). 2025–2026. https://www.globaldata.com/store/report/development-of-autonomous-trucks-in-mining-market-analysis/
33. Congressional Research Service, "U.S. Coal Industry Trends" (2025) — 512 million short tons produced in 2024; consumption down 64% from the 2007 peak; exports to China down roughly 92%. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48587
34. U.S. Energy Information Administration, coal production and outlook data (533 million short tons in 2025; power-sector coal consumption forecast down 9% in 2026). https://www.eia.gov/coal/annual/; https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/elec_coal_renew.php
35. International Energy Agency, "Oil 2025 — Executive Summary" (U.S. upstream investment down ~6% to ~$420bn in 2025); Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, "Dallas Fed Energy Survey — Q1 2025." https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-2025/executive-summary; https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2025/2503
36. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "U.S. crude oil production reached a record 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025" (Lower-48 rig activity 5% below 2024); Short-Term Energy Outlook (LNG exports 15.1 → 17.4 → 18.6 bcf/d, 2025–2027). 2026. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67404; https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/index.php
37. NOV Inc., 2025 Form 10-K (revenue ~$8.74bn; Energy Equipment backlog $4.34bn, ~49% converting in 2026, 58% offshore, 94% international; Energy Equipment segment revenue $4.93bn at a 10.0% operating margin). SEC, 2026. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1021860/000119312526048350/nov-20251231.htm
38. CompaniesMarketCap / TechnipFMC, "TechnipFMC 2025 revenue and backlog" (revenue ~$9.9bn; backlog ~$16.6bn). 2026. https://companiesmarketcap.com/technipfmc/revenue/
39. Cactus, Inc., "Cactus Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results" (revenue ~$1.08bn) and investor presentation filed with the SEC (32.7% adjusted EBITDA margin). 2026. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260225154720/en/Cactus-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Results; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1699136/000162828026018270/march2026investorpresent.htm
40. Forum Energy Technologies, 2025 Form 10-K (~80% of revenue from consumable products and activity-based equipment); Oil States International, 2025 Form 10-K (Offshore Manufactured Products backlog $435m vs $311m a year earlier). SEC, 2026. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1401257/000140125726000015/fet-20251231.htm; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1121484/000112148426000007/ois-20251231.htm
41. SLB, "SLB Announces Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Results" (revenue $35.71bn); Baker Hughes Co., SEC Form ARS FY2025 (revenue ~$27.7bn); Halliburton, "Halliburton announces fourth quarter 2025 results" (revenue $22.2bn). 2026. https://investorcenter.slb.com/news-releases; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1701605/000119312526130311/d63282dars.pdf; https://www.halliburton.com/en/about-us/press-release/halliburton-announces-fourth-quarter-2025-results
42. YNS Corp / Spherical Insights, 2025 Global Construction & Mining Equipment Rankings (Komatsu ~$26.6bn; XCMG ~$12.8bn; SANY ~$10.8bn; Caterpillar global #1). 2026. https://www.yns-corp.com/2026/01/08/2025-global-construction-mining-equipment-rankings-caterpillar-leads-chinese-oems-rising/
43. VanEck, Oil Services ETF (OIH) portfolio holdings, 1 June 2026 (SLB 20.78%, Baker Hughes 11.62%, NOV 3.42%). https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/oil-services-etf-oih/portfolio/
44. Zacks / Yahoo Finance / CompaniesMarketCap, machinery market caps, revenues, and yields (Deere ~$134B market cap and ~1% yield; CNH ~$16B; AGCO ~$8B), 2026. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DE/key-statistics/
45. DieselNet / U.S. EPA, "USA: Nonroad Diesel Engines — Emission Standards (Tier 4)" (PM/NOx cut ~90%+; Tier 4 Final from 2015). 2024. https://dieselnet.com/standards/us/nonroad.php
46. Equipment World / AEM, "Steep Section 232 Tariffs Hit Construction Equipment; targeted relief 2026" (50% steel/aluminum tariffs, derivative products, relief for construction and agriculture equipment). 2025–2026. https://www.equipmentworld.com/regulations/article/15753669/new-50-tariffs-hit-construction-equipment-parts
47. Federal Register, Proclamation 10947 (Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum increased from 25% to 50%, June 2025). https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/full_text/html/2025/06/09/2025-10524.html
48. Federal Trade Commission, "FTC, States Secure Settlement with Deere & Company, Advancing Farmers' Right to Repair" (ten-year access to repair software and tools; suit Jan. 2025, settlement July 2026). https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2026/07/ftc-states-secure-settlement-deere-company-advancing-farmers-right-repair
49. California Air Resources Board, "CARB approves updated regulations requiring most new small off-road engines be zero emission by 2024." 2021. https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/carb-approves-updated-regulations-requiring-most-new-small-road-engines-be-zero-emission-2024
50. Mine Safety and Health Administration, "Approval and Certification Center" (30 CFR Part 7 approvals, audits, retrofits, revocation); U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Regulations for Emissions from Heavy Equipment with Compression-Ignition (Diesel) Engines" (Tier 4 nonroad standards, ~90% PM and NOx reduction). https://www.msha.gov/about/program-areas-offices/technical-support/technical-support/approval-and-certification-center; https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/regulations-emissions-heavy-equipment-compression
51. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, "Blowout Preventer Systems and Well Control Rule — Technical Fact Sheet" (incorporates API Standard 53). 2019. https://www.bsee.gov/sites/bsee.gov/files/fact-sheet/bsee-fact-sheet-well-control-rule-2019.pdf
52. Occupational Safety and Health Administration, "Respirable Crystalline Silica — Construction" (exposure limits for crushing, milling, drilling, grading). 2025. https://www.osha.gov/silica-crystalline/construction
53. Deere & Company, "Deere Completes Acquisition of Wirtgen Group" ($5.2B, road-construction machinery). PR Newswire, 2017. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/deere--company-completes-acquisition-of-the-wirtgen-group-300565244.html
54. Mining-equipment consolidation: Caterpillar completes acquisition of Bucyrus (2011); Joy Global shareholders approve $3.7bn acquisition by Komatsu (2017); Epiroc split from Atlas Copco Group (2018). https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/caterpillar-completes-acquisition-of-bucyrus-creating-mining-equipment-group-with-unmatched-product-range-and-unrivaled-customer-support-125214769.html; https://www.mining.com/joy-global-shareholders-approve-3-7-billion-acquisition-komatsu/; https://www.atlascopcogroup.com/en/investors/acquisitions-and-divestments/epiroc-split-from-atlas-copco-group
55. Oil-and-gas equipment consolidation: World Oil, "SLB completes $7.8 billion ChampionX acquisition" (July 2025); NS Energy, "Dril-Quip and Innovex Downhole Solutions complete merger to form Innovex International" (2024); Cactus, Inc. SEC filing (65% operational control of Baker Hughes's Surface Pressure Control business, 1 January 2026). https://www.worldoil.com/news/2025/7/16/slb-completes-7-8-billion-championx-acquisition/; https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/deals/dril-quip-and-innovex-downhole-solutions-complete-merger-to-form-innovex-international/; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1699136/000162828026019875/exhibit991.htm
56. GMInsights, precision-farming and autonomous farm-equipment market sizing (~$13B precision-farming market, double-digit growth). 2025–2026. https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/autonomous-farm-equipment-market
57. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook — Machinists and Tool-and-Die Makers (about 34,200 annual openings projected 2024–2034 despite a 2% employment decline). https://www.bls.gov/ooh/production/machinists-and-tool-and-die-makers.htm