Wheat Farming in the United States (NAICS 111140)

A Histometrics industry primer for public-market and private investors.

NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) code 111140 covers U.S. establishments primarily engaged in growing wheat and/or producing wheat seed.[36] This primer explains what the industry is, how growers actually make money, and the handful of ways an outside investor can get exposure to it. It is not a research report on a listed sector — wheat farming is overwhelmingly a private, family-owned operating business, and the public-market angles are all indirect.

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1. Overview

Wheat is a bulk agricultural commodity — an undifferentiated staple where one farmer's grain of a given class and grade is interchangeable with the next farmer's. It ranks third among U.S. field crops, behind corn and soybeans, in planted acreage, production, and gross farm receipts.[1] The 2024 U.S. all-wheat crop was worth about $10.9 billion at the farm gate.[2]

Why it matters to an investor. Wheat sits at the base of the global food supply chain — bread, pasta, noodles, crackers, tortillas, animal feed. The United States is one of the world's largest exporters, so wheat is both a domestic-food story and a global-trade story. But it is a hard business to profit from directly: growers are price-takers in a world market, margins are thin and cyclical, and — critically — as of the 2025/26 season, wheat prices sat below most growers' full cost of production for a fourth straight year.[4]

Public vs. private ways in. There is no pure-play, publicly traded U.S. wheat-farming company with material, transparent wheat-farm reporting. Public-market investors reach the theme indirectly — through grain merchandisers and processors, farmland real estate investment trusts (REITs), farm-input and equipment suppliers, and commodity-futures exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Private investors participate by owning or leasing cropland, financing operations, or farming itself. Both routes are detailed in Sections 4 and 10.

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2. What it is and how it's structured

Scope. NAICS 111140 is farms whose primary crop is wheat — selecting varieties, seeding, applying nutrients and crop protection, managing weather and disease risk, harvesting grain, and selling it at the farm gate.[36] The U.S. grows five main classes, each with distinct end uses and growing regions:[1][6]

• Hard Red Winter (HRW) — ~40% of production. Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas. Bread flour.
• Hard Red Spring (HRS) — ~20–25%. North Dakota, Montana, Minnesota. High-protein bread and rolls.
• Soft Red Winter (SRW) — ~15–20%. Eastern Corn Belt and Southeast. Cakes, cookies, crackers.
• White wheat — ~12–17%. Pacific Northwest. Asian noodles, some breads.
• Durum — ~3–6%. North Dakota, Montana, Arizona. Pasta.

Winter wheat (planted in fall, harvested early summer) is roughly 70% of the total; spring wheat and durum make up the rest.[1]

The value chain runs: seed and inputs → farm production → elevator/storage → merchant/exporter → miller → bakery, food, feed or industrial customer. Wheat farming (NAICS 111140) is only the first production link.

What it excludes (adjacent NAICS codes). Wheat is frequently rotated with these crops on the same land, but the neighboring activities are classified separately:[36]

Ownership mix. This is a small-business, family-owned industry. Nationally, family farms were 97% of all U.S. farms in 2024, yet about 69% of production occurred on the ~11% of farms classified as midsize or large-scale family operations — so output is concentrating by scale without becoming publicly owned.[7] The most recent wheat-specific ownership cross-tab is dated (2012 USDA data): family/individually operated farms were 78% of wheat farms and 60% of wheat sales; partnerships 12% of farms and 22% of sales; corporations 9% of farms and 17% of sales.[11] Treat that split as directional, not current. Notably, land ownership and farm operation are often separate: USDA's land-tenure work found more than 2 million landowners renting out roughly 348 million acres of U.S. farmland, of which about 79% is owned by non-farming landlords — a structural feature that matters for how the money works (Section 5) and who can invest (Section 4).[12]

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3. How big it is

A caveat on the numbers first. Our ingested federal business-statistics ground truth for NAICS 111140 contains only the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) size standard — a farm is "small" if its average annual receipts are $2.25 million or less.[8] It carries no establishment count, employment, or payroll figure, and we do not infer them. That absence is itself informative: standard U.S. Census Bureau business statistics (County Business Patterns, Statistics of U.S. Businesses) badly undercount farming because farms are overwhelmingly non-employer sole proprietorships, family partnerships, and trusts that never appear on payroll rolls. For agriculture the authoritative source is USDA's Census of Agriculture and its National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) — which counts a farm when $1,000 or more of agricultural products were (or normally would have been) sold in a year — and the commodity figures below rely on it.[5]

A second undercount to keep in mind: the "97,014 wheat farms" figure counts farms classified by wheat as their main product. Many more operations grow some wheat inside a diversified rotation without wheat being their primary crop, so the number of farms that touch wheat is larger than the headline. For wheat specifically, the measurement gap is tiny and family operations — not government-owned land, which is minimal here.

Commodity context (USDA — not NAICS business revenue):

The 2026/27 USDA forecast is the striking one: total production at its lowest since 1970/71, with HRW output the lowest since 1957/58 — a smaller harvest that lifts the price forecast toward $6.00 but signals real production and weather stress.[10]

Concentration. Eight states account for 54% of wheat operations. Kansas alone is ~15% (14,520 operations), followed by North Dakota (8,053) and Ohio (7,604).[5] The largest per-farm acreages are in Montana, Washington, and North Dakota, where the average wheat operation runs 750+ acres.[1]

Long-run shrinkage. The number of farms reporting wheat fell 43% between 2002 (169,528) and 2022 (97,014).[5] Since 1981, U.S. wheat acreage has dropped by about 43 million acres and production by roughly 800 million bushels, as growers shifted land to more profitable corn and soybeans.[1] This is a large but contracting industry in acreage and grower count, even as yield per acre climbs.

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4. The investable universe

The honest headline: you cannot buy a wheat farm on a stock exchange. The direct industry is private; public-market exposure is all indirect, and no listed company's fortunes rise and fall primarily with the wheat crop. The realistic menu:

These are proxies, not equivalents. A grain merchant has high commodity-linked sales but thin margins; a farmland REIT is driven by rent, land values, interest rates, and tenant quality; input and equipment firms ride the broad farm cycle; the ETF tracks futures, not operating returns.

Major private and value-chain owners. The real industry is the ~97,000 family operations, plus a concentrated layer of private merchants, cooperatives, and millers who buy, store, ship, and process the crop:

Most private merchants and millers do not primarily own wheat farms — they own storage, processing, transport, customer relationships, and risk-management capability, and buy wheat from independent growers. A growing pool of institutional and individual farmland investors owns cropland and leases it to operators. Government owns comparatively little productive wheat land; this is not a government-dominated industry, but it is a government-supported one (Section 7).

Bottom line for allocators: to bet on wheat the crop, the cleanest instrument is the futures/ETF route; on the land that grows it, a farmland REIT or direct cropland; on the ecosystem, the merchandisers, input makers, and equipment firms — all diversified far beyond wheat.

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5. How the money works

Wheat is a low-value-per-acre, thin-margin, price-taker business. A grower's economics reduce to:

Revenue = harvested yield (bu/acre) × realized price ($/bu) + quality premiums + government program payments + crop-insurance indemnities.

• Yield × price is the whole ballgame on the open market. At ~51 bushels/acre and ~$5.50/bushel, that's roughly $280/acre of crop revenue[2][3] — low compared with corn or soybeans, which is exactly why acreage has drifted away from wheat.[1]
• Government payments (Price Loss Coverage / Agriculture Risk Coverage) and crop-insurance indemnities are not a sideshow — in low-price years they are the difference between a loss and a small profit (Section 7).

Costs. Seed, fertilizer (nitrogen is the big swing), crop-protection chemicals, fuel, machinery ownership and depreciation, land (cash rent or the opportunity cost of owning), labor, custom harvesting, storage, and interest on operating and land loans. Full cost of production for winter wheat commonly runs $6–8/bushel once land and overhead are counted — which is why, with prices near $5.50, USDA and farm economists flagged 2025/26 as a fourth consecutive year of below-breakeven prices across wheat, corn, and soybeans.[4]

The operating levers a grower can actually pull: yield per harvested acre, abandoned-acre rate, protein/test-weight quality, local basis (cash price minus futures), storage timing and calendar spreads, cost per acre, and break-even yield or price. The farm can improve results — it generally cannot set the world benchmark price.

So where does the money actually come from? Three places, in rough order of importance to long-run returns:

1. Land appreciation. For most farm owners the real wealth engine is the rising value of the cropland itself, not the annual operating margin. Row-crop land often throws off a low single-digit cash-rent yield plus appreciation — which is why the investable proxy is a farmland REIT, not a "wheat operating company."
2. Scale and efficiency. With margin per acre thin and price fixed by the market, profit is a game of spreading fixed machinery and overhead across more acres and shaving cost per bushel — the engine behind decades of consolidation (Section 8).
3. Program payments and risk management. Federal support plus disciplined marketing (forward contracts and futures hedging to lock in prices above break-even) smooth the cycle and, in bad years, are the margin.

Where the value-chain profit sits. Merchants and elevators earn on procurement, storage, handling, transport, export execution, and basis/calendar-spread moves; their durable edge is physical — elevators, rail access, river terminals, ports — more than the grain itself.[35] Millers earn the spread between wheat cost and flour-plus-byproduct value, times plant utilization. Farmland owners earn rent and appreciation — a real-estate business with agricultural exposure, not the same economics as operating a farm.

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6. What drives demand

• Global food demand and exports. About 42% of the U.S. crop is exported,[4][9] so demand is set as much in Nigeria, Mexico, the Philippines, Japan, and Latin America as at home. U.S. wheat competes head-to-head with Russia, the European Union, Canada, Australia, Argentina, and Ukraine — and the U.S. share of global wheat trade has fallen to about 11% (2025/26), down from ~25% in the early 2000s, as lower-cost Black Sea exporters gained ground.[1][4]
• Price competitiveness and the U.S. dollar. Because it's a global commodity, U.S. export volume swings with relative price. A strong dollar makes U.S. wheat pricier abroad; a weak dollar helps. 2024/25 exports rebounded partly on improved U.S. price competitiveness.[9]
• Domestic food use. Steady but slow-growing. Per-capita flour consumption is roughly flat and under long-term pressure from changing diets and gluten-free/low-carb preferences — a mature, non-growth end market.[1]
• Quality segmentation. Mills pay for protein, test weight, cleanliness, class, and functional performance; identity-preserved, organic, and regenerative programs can earn premiums when customers value traceability.
• Feed and industrial use. Lower-quality wheat competes with corn as animal feed when the price spread favors it; starch, gluten, and other industrial outlets are smaller.
• Weather and geopolitics. Drought on the Plains, a poor Black Sea harvest, or export disruptions (war affecting Ukrainian/Russian shipments) can swing global prices sharply — the supply side is as important a driver of price as consumption itself.
• Crop-rotation economics. When corn and soybean margins look better, growers plant less wheat; internal competition for acres is a persistent structural driver.[1]

The 2026/27 forecast illustrates the cycle: production and ending stocks projected to fall sharply while the average farm price rises toward $6.00 — but a smaller harvest can still damage farm profits if lost yield outweighs the higher price.[10]

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7. Regulation

Wheat is lightly regulated as a product but deeply shaped by farm policy. The key touchpoints:

• Farm Bill commodity programs. Growers enroll acres in Price Loss Coverage (PLC) or Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC), administered by USDA's Farm Service Agency (FSA). PLC pays when the season price falls below a statutory reference price; ARC pays on revenue shortfalls versus a benchmark.[13] Under the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) budget-reconciliation law, wheat's statutory reference price was raised from $5.50 to $6.35/bushel (+15%) and the marketing-loan rate from $3.38 to $3.72, both locked in through the 2030 crop year.[14] For a crop sitting below break-even, that higher safety net is materially supportive of grower income.
• Federal crop insurance. Administered by USDA's Risk Management Agency (RMA) with heavily subsidized premiums — the primary backstop for weather, yield, and (in revenue policies) price loss.[16]
• Grain standards. The Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS), under the U.S. Grain Standards Act, sets and administers official wheat grading and inspection standards.[17]
• Pesticides. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulates crop-protection chemicals under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) — registration, labeling, worker protection, residue tolerances (e.g., ongoing scrutiny of glyphosate and other herbicides).[18]
• Conservation. Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) conservation-compliance rules tie many USDA benefits to protecting highly erodible land and wetlands; in the arid West, state water rights allocation is decisive.[19]
• Food safety. Wheat is among food grains excluded from the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) Produce Safety Rule, but downstream milling/food facilities can face preventive-control requirements under the Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA).[20]
• Foreign ownership. The Agricultural Foreign Investment Disclosure Act (AFIDA) requires foreign persons with covered interests in U.S. agricultural land to report holdings to USDA; some states add restrictions.[21]
• Trade and labor. Tariffs, retaliatory measures, and importing-country phytosanitary rules directly affect export demand; export promotion runs through U.S. Wheat Associates. Wheat is highly mechanized, so seasonal-labor (H-2A visa) rules matter far less than in produce.

Net: policy risk here is mostly stability/upside — a persistent federal income support — but it is also a dependency, and Farm Bill reauthorization fights are a recurring source of uncertainty.

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8. Competitive dynamics and consolidation

• Commodity, no pricing power. An individual grower has zero pricing power — price is set on the CME Group (Chicago and Kansas City) wheat futures markets and the world balance sheet.[37] There is no branding or customer lock-in; competitive advantage is entirely on the cost side — cheaper land, higher yields, lower cost per bushel, plus access to water, storage, and rail/elevator proximity.
• A barbell structure. Many family farms compete locally for land, machinery, labor, and leases; a smaller set of large family farms and integrated agribusinesses controls a disproportionate share of output, storage, logistics, and processing.
• Relentless consolidation. Across the major field crops (wheat, cotton, rice, soybeans), the midpoint harvested acreage — the size at which half the acres are on bigger farms — rose 166–243% between 1987 and 2017.[15] Wheat's 43% drop in farm count since 2002[5] is the same story from the other side.
• Consolidation is more visible in the value chain than in farm ownership. Merchants and millers benefit from scale in procurement, transport, inventory, and customer service. The 2025 Bunge–Viterra combination and Ardent Mills' three-way ownership structure illustrate continuing vertical integration across origination, logistics, and milling.[25][27] The counterweight is local competition — growers can often shop multiple elevators, co-ops, and merchants — and antitrust scrutiny rises when consolidation concentrates local buying alternatives or critical storage/transport assets.
• Land as the moat. Because operating margins are thin, ownership of appreciating cropland is the durable asset; institutional farmland investors and REITs increasingly compete with operators to own that land and lease it back.

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9. Risks

• Price cyclicality — the dominant risk. Wheat prices are volatile and, as of 2025/26, below full cost of production for a fourth straight year.[4] Extended below-break-even stretches erode farm balance sheets and equity.
• Weather and yield. Drought, heat, late freezes, excess rain, and hail can reduce yield or prevent harvest; crop insurance softens but does not eliminate this.
• Disease and pests. Rusts, Fusarium head blight, and wheat streak mosaic virus can cut yield or quality.
• Input-cost inflation. Fertilizer (especially nitrogen), fuel, seed, chemicals, and cash rents; when input costs stay high while grain prices fall, the squeeze is acute.
• Interest rates and leverage. Farms run on operating loans and carry land debt; higher rates raise operating costs and lower land values, and cash is needed before harvest.
• Trade and geopolitics. A rising U.S. dollar, tariffs, sanctions, or a bumper Black Sea harvest can gut export demand; the long slide in U.S. global market share (25% → 11%) is a structural headwind.[4]
• Basis and logistics. A favorable futures price doesn't guarantee a favorable local cash price if elevators, railcars, or ports are constrained.
• Policy dependence. Grower income leans on the Farm Bill safety net and subsidized insurance; reauthorization uncertainty or program cuts are a real risk (though OBBBA moved the safety net up).[14]
• Land, water, and climate. Water rights, groundwater restrictions, soil degradation, and shifting precipitation/heat patterns threaten the semi-arid Plains over time.
• Demographics and succession. An aging farmer population and difficult generational transfers add long-run structural risk.
• Concentration and private-investment risk. A single tenant, elevator, processor, rail route, or export market can create hidden dependence; direct farms and private funds are illiquid, manager-dependent, and hard to value precisely.

For public-market proxies, add instrument-specific risks: the WEAT ETF carries futures roll cost (contango can erode returns even if spot prices are flat), and farmland REITs (LAND, FPI) carry interest-rate sensitivity and are only fractionally wheat-exposed.

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10. How to invest and the outlook

Public-market routes (liquid, indirect):

• Commodity-price bet: the Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT) is the closest listed proxy for the wheat price, via CBOT futures — mind roll costs; it tracks the commodity, not farm profitability.[22]
• Farmland bet: Farmland Partners (FPI) is the more row-crop-and-wheat-exposed of the two U.S. farmland REITs; Gladstone Land (LAND) is more produce-oriented.[23][24] Both give exposure to cropland values and rents rather than to farming operations — study rent coverage, tenant concentration, lease maturities, water assets, and interest costs.
• Ecosystem bet: grain merchandisers (ADM, BG, ANDE), input makers (CTVA, NTR, CF), equipment (DE), the exchange (CME), and downstream food (CAG) — all diversified far beyond wheat, so treat them as broad-ag plays and don't value them on earnings multiples alone.

Private routes (illiquid, direct):

• Own cropland and lease it to an operator (cash rent or crop-share) — the classic way to capture land appreciation plus a low-single-digit rent yield; increasingly available through farmland funds and platforms.
• Operate — highest exposure, highest risk; success is a low-cost-at-scale, disciplined-marketing game. Diligence should cover multi-year field-level yield and quality history, soil and water rights, lease terms and tenant strength, crop-insurance and marketing contracts, local elevator/basis and transport access, equipment and debt structure, and environmental/title/tax liabilities.

Near-term outlook (forward-looking, not a forecast). The setup is mixed. On the bearish side, prices have run below break-even for several years,[4] U.S. global market share keeps eroding,[4] and domestic demand is flat.[1] Supportive: the OBBBA safety-net increases (reference price to $6.35, higher loan rate) meaningfully raise the income floor for growers through 2030,[14] and the tight balance in the 2026/27 forecast — production at its lowest since 1970/71 and HRW output the lowest since 1957/58 — is price-supportive if demand holds, though it is equally a warning about weather and production risk.[10] Land values — the real long-run return driver — have held up better than operating margins, which is why the land thesis (farmland REITs, direct cropland) is generally a steadier way to invest in this industry than a bet on the wheat crop or on the growers themselves.

Editorial judgment. Wheat farming is best viewed as a mature, cyclical industry with stable food demand but limited structural U.S. volume growth. The strongest long-term positions are low-cost farms with durable land and water advantages, specialized high-quality or identity-preserved wheat, efficient storage and logistics, and well-capitalized merchants or millers. Investors should be cautious about assuming that rising global food demand automatically produces attractive returns for every wheat farmer.

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Sources

1. USDA Economic Research Service. "Wheat Sector at a Glance." 2026. https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/wheat/wheat-sector-at-a-glance
2. USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. "Crop Values 2024 Summary." February 2025. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/cpvl0225.pdf
3. World Grain. "USDA estimates US all-wheat crop up 9% from 2023." 2024. https://www.world-grain.com/articles/20554-usda-estimates-us-all-wheat-crop-up-9-from-2023
4. Capital Press. "Wheat, corn, soybean prices are below breakeven, signaling fourth year of losses." 2026. https://www.capitalpress.com/2026/05/08/wheat-corn-soybean-prices-are-below-breakeven-signaling-fourth-year-of-losses/
5. USDA Economic Research Service. "2022 Census of Agriculture: Fewer U.S. farms are growing wheat." 2024. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/charts-of-note/108898
6. American Farm Bureau Federation. "Wheat Exports: The Balancing Act of U.S. Wheat." 2024. https://www.fb.org/market-intel/wheat-exports-the-balancing-act-of-u-s-wheat
7. USDA Economic Research Service. "Farm Structure and Contracting." 2026. https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/farm-structure-and-organization/farm-structure-and-contracting
8. U.S. Small Business Administration. "Table of Size Standards." 2023. (Ground-truth ingested figure: $2.25 million average annual receipts for NAICS 111140.) https://www.sba.gov/document/support-table-size-standards
9. U.S. Wheat Associates. "U.S. Wheat Exports Rebound in 2024/25 Thanks to Increased Production and Price Competitiveness." 2025. https://uswheat.org/wheatletter/u-s-wheat-exports-rebound-in-2024-25-thanks-to-increased-production-and-price-competitiveness/
10. USDA Economic Research Service. "Wheat Outlook: July 2026." 2026. https://ers.usda.gov/media/29343/whs-26g.pdf
11. USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. "Wheat Farming" (2012 Census highlights). 2015. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Highlights/2015/Wheat_Farming.pdf
12. USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. "Most of the U.S. Rented Farmland is Owned by Non-Farmers." 2026. https://data.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/2026/03-12-2026.php
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14. Colorado Wheat. "OBBBA Agriculture Provisions — Statutory Reference Price Increases under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act." 2025. https://coloradowheat.org/wp-content/uploads/FINAL-OBBBA-Agriculture-Provisions-06.09.2025-MA.pdf
15. USDA Economic Research Service. "Three Decades of Consolidation in U.S. Agriculture" (EIB-189, Summary). 2018. https://www.ers.usda.gov/sites/default/files/_laserfiche/publications/88057/EIB189_summary.pdf
16. USDA Risk Management Agency. "Insurance Plans." 2026. https://www.rma.usda.gov/about-crop-insurance/managing-farm-risk/insurance-plans
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18. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. "Pesticides: Regulatory and Guidance Information." 2026. https://www.epa.gov/regulatory-information-topic/regulatory-and-guidance-information-topic-pesticides
19. USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service. "Conservation Compliance." 2026. https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/getting-assistance/financial-help/conservation-compliance
20. U.S. Food and Drug Administration. "FSMA Final Rule on Produce Safety." 2026. https://www.fda.gov/food/food-safety-modernization-act-fsma/fsma-final-rule-produce-safety
21. USDA Farm Service Agency. "Agricultural Foreign Investment Disclosure Act (AFIDA)." 2026. https://www.fsa.usda.gov/resources/economic-policy-analysis/afida
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26. The Andersons Trade Group. "About Us." 2026. https://www.andersonsgrain.com/about-us/
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28. Cargill. "About Cargill / Agriculture." 2026. https://www.cargill.com/agriculture
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31. Scoular. "Grain and Seed Solutions." 2026. https://www.scoular.com/solutions/grains/
32. Grain Craft. "Sustainability Report 2024." 2025. https://www.graincraft.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/GrainCraft_CSR2024_Final_lowres.pdf
33. Shepherd's Grain. "About Shepherd's Grain." 2026. https://www.shepherdsgrain.com/about-us
34. Sunheaven Farms. "Our Story." 2026. https://sunheavenfarms.com/our-story/
35. USDA Economic Research Service. "Rail Networks Facilitate U.S. Wheat Exports." 2023. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/charts-of-note/105869
36. U.S. Census Bureau. "North American Industry Classification System: 2022 NAICS, Wheat Farming (111140)." 2022. https://www.census.gov/naics/?details=111140&year=2022
37. CME Group. "Wheat Futures and Options." 2026. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/wheat-futures