Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation, Land (U.S.) — NAICS 487110

An investor's primer for public- and private-market readers.

1. Overview

This industry sells the ride, not the destination. Its operators move people over land for the pleasure of the trip itself: open-top hop-on/hop-off city buses, narrated trolley loops, steam-train and narrow-gauge railroad excursions, and horse-drawn carriage rides. The trip is usually local and same-day — you end where you started [1].

It is a pure play on the "experiences" side of tourism: recognizable local brands, often-unique assets (a canyon railroad, a downtown trolley franchise), and — for the best-placed operators — real local pricing power. It is also small, highly fragmented, seasonal, and sensitive to weather and the travel cycle.

The honest framing up front: this is a private-markets industry. There is no clean U.S.-listed pure play. Public-market exposure is available only indirectly — most defensibly through the online travel marketplaces that distribute these operators, and not through the large leisure companies whose in-park trams get mistaken for sightseeing transport. The direct ways in are owning or operating a business, backing a private-equity or infrastructure platform, or franchising into a sightseeing brand. Sections 4 and 10 cover both routes.

2. What it is and how it's structured

In scope (NAICS — North American Industry Classification System — 487110): establishments primarily providing scenic and sightseeing transport on land — sightseeing buses and trolleys, steam-train and tourist-railroad excursions, tram tours, and horse-drawn sightseeing rides [1]. Segway and pedicab sightseeing operators sit here too. The defining test is purpose: the trip is the product, and it typically returns to where it began.

Explicitly excluded — and where it goes instead:

• Sightseeing on water (harbor cruises, whale-watching, dinner boats) → NAICS 487210 [1].
• Sightseeing by air and other modes (helicopter and balloon tours, and — importantly — aerial trams, gondolas, and cable cars used for sightseeing) → NAICS 487990 [1]. A mountain-resort gondola ride is not in 487110.
• Charter buses hired for point-to-point transport → NAICS 485510; interurban/rural line-haul buses → 485210; urban transit → 485111/485113 [1].
• Recreational pack-train / horseback trail services → NAICS 713990 [1].
• Amusement- and theme-park rides, and the trams/monorails a park runs inside its own gates (Disney's parking trams, the Universal studio-tour tram), are classified as support to the park under NAICS 713110 — not here.
• Freight and short-line railroads → NAICS 482; travel agencies and tour packagers that arrange rather than operate the ride → NAICS 5615.

Ownership mix. The federal data carry no public-versus-private split, but the practical composition is clear: overwhelmingly small, private, and local — family-owned trolley and carriage companies, seasonal sole proprietors, and a large share of the scenic-railroad segment run as 501(c)(3) nonprofits and volunteer heritage associations [16]. Layered on top are a handful of consolidators: private-equity and infrastructure funds (rail and bus roll-ups), private hospitality groups, and franchise/licensing networks. A few lines are publicly owned — the Cumbres & Toltec Scenic Railroad, for instance, is jointly owned by the states of Colorado and New Mexico [17]. Gray Line shows the franchise model: the brand is owned and licensed centrally while independent local licensees actually run the tours [11].

A classification wrinkle worth flagging: a company may run sightseeing transport alongside attractions, museums, food service, or charter work, and each establishment is coded to its primary activity — so real sightseeing activity can land outside 487110 entirely.

3. How big it is (federal figures)

Core U.S. figures from federal statistics:

These are small numbers. Within the 2022 Economic Census, receipts of $1.227 billion across 598 firms work out to about $2.1 million per firm; within the 2023 County Business Patterns, 9,244 employees across 727 establishments is roughly 13 people per establishment [2][3]. (The two come from different programs and years, so treat any cross-program ratio as directional, not exact.) Annual payroll runs a bit over a third of receipts — a labor-intensive, asset-heavy business with thin room for error. The Small Business Administration's (SBA) $20.5 million figure is a federal-contracting size threshold, not typical operator revenue [4]; at ~$2.1 million average receipts, essentially the entire industry qualifies as "small."

The undercount caveat — it matters a lot here. County Business Patterns counts only employer establishments, and the Economic Census generally excludes government-run and nonemployer businesses [5]. Together they miss the industry's long tail: single-owner horse-carriage, pedicab, and Segway operators with no payroll; seasonal one-person outfits; the many nonprofit and volunteer-run heritage railroads [16]; and park- or municipality-operated trams and trolleys coded elsewhere. As a rough sense of the wider footprint, the private research firm IBISWorld put the entire "Sightseeing Transportation" sector (land plus water plus air) at about $6.9 billion in revenue across ~2,811 businesses in 2025, with sector profit near 9.7% of revenue [7] — a wider net than the land-only federal figure, and a reminder that the true count of land operators exceeds 727.

The federal file supplies no passenger counts, fleet sizes, load factors, ticket prices, or operating-cost breakdowns for this industry; those have to be gathered operator by operator.

4. The investable universe

Public companies — no pure play. No U.S.-listed company reports itself as a 487110 operator. Public exposure is indirect, and comes in two flavors — one defensible, one a trap.

The defensible angle is distribution. Online travel marketplaces list and sell these operators' tickets, so they ride the same demand without owning the fleets. The important economic distinction is gross versus net: a tour operator books the full ticket and bears the fleet and labor costs; a marketplace typically books a commission or service fee and bears little operating risk.

The trap is theme parks. Large leisure and media names run in-park trams and monorails — Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA, Universal studio-tour tram), The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS, resort monorail and trams), Six Flags Entertainment (NYSE: FUN, in-park trains) — but those captive rides are classified under amusement parks (713110), not this industry, and give an investor essentially no exposure to it. Merlin Entertainments, which has held a minority stake in Big Bus Tours, is itself privately held (Blackstone, KIRKBI, a Canadian pension fund) [9].

The operators that actually define the industry are private:

The takeaway for an allocator: direct exposure comes from owning or operating a business, from private-equity/infrastructure platforms (Big Bus, Patriot Rail), or from private hospitality groups — not from a ticker.

5. How the money works

Owners make money the way any capacity-based tourism business does: fill seats on scheduled departures, then sell more per passenger.

• Revenue ≈ capacity (seats × departures) × load factor × realized ticket price + ancillary spend. Ancillary is the margin lever: food and beverage, gift shops, premium or first-class seating, private charters, photography, and — critically — high-yield themed events (holiday "Polar Express" runs, dinner and murder-mystery trains, fall-foliage excursions). A themed evening run can earn multiples of a standard daytime ticket.
• The key operating metric is load factor — seats filled per departure. Locomotives, rolling stock, buses, track, and horses/stables are largely fixed costs, and crews run whether the car is full or half-empty. That makes this an operating-leverage business: profit swings sharply with how full each run is. Beyond load factor, operators watch passenger volume, revenue (yield) per passenger, ancillary spend per head, revenue per vehicle-day, direct-booking share, and maintenance capex.
• Cost structure. Labor (drivers, guides, mechanics, seasonal crew) is the largest line; then fuel/energy, equipment maintenance (steam and historic equipment is punishingly maintenance-heavy), insurance (liability looms large given passenger safety and, for carriages, animal exposure), permits and concession fees, track and right-of-way upkeep for line-owning railroads, and channel commissions to hotels, travel agents, and online marketplaces. Whether a railroad owns its line or merely runs on a freight carrier's rails (trackage rights) shapes both cost and control.
• Where pricing power comes from. Uniqueness and location. A narrow-gauge canyon railroad or the only trolley loop through a historic downtown faces little direct substitution and can price to the experience; a generic city bus tour competes harder. Bundling with hotels, parks, and attractions and pushing riders toward premium/holiday product is how strong operators lift yield. Sector margins are moderate — IBISWorld estimates ~9.7% for the wider sightseeing sector [7] — and thinner for sub-scale, heavily seasonal outfits.
• A diligence flag: a business with strong reported profit but aging vehicles, thin insurance, or underfunded maintenance may be worth less than it looks. Normalize cash flow after the fleet and track spending that keeps it running safely.
• Seasonality is the defining financial fact. Demand concentrates in summer, fall-foliage weeks, and the holidays; a bad-weather season or a late foliage turn hits a fixed-cost base directly.

6. What drives demand

• Tourism volume — domestic leisure travel, regional drive markets, and inbound international visitors, and specifically visitation to the destinations these operators sit in (national parks, historic cities, wine country).
• Discretionary consumer spending and the shift toward experiences over goods. This is a want, not a need, so it tracks confidence and travel budgets. The U.S. Travel Association forecasts total U.S. travel spending of about $1.37 trillion in 2026 and $1.42 trillion in 2027 (inflation-adjusted 2025 dollars), including ~$909 billion of domestic leisure spending in 2026 — a supportive backdrop, though these are macro forecasts, not this industry's revenue [27].
• Local demand plumbing — hotel occupancy, cruise calls, convention activity, destination foot traffic, and attraction/tourism-board partnerships that feed walk-up and bundled sales.
• Weather, season, and climate — the immediate swing factor and a growing structural one (wildfire smoke, extreme-heat days that suspend carriage operations, shifting foliage timing).
• Fuel prices — both a direct cost and a demand signal, since cheaper fuel encourages the road trips and destination visits these operators depend on.
• Digital demand — mobile booking, online reviews, multilingual content, and dynamic pricing increasingly separate operators that own their demand from those dependent on a single reseller or walk-up traffic.
• Major events and destination marketing. The 2026 calendar is unusually rich: the FIFA World Cup co-hosted across U.S. cities, the America250 semiquincentennial, and the Route 66 centennial are all expected to lift domestic and inbound visitation [27].
• Inbound-travel conditions — visa policy, the dollar, and geopolitics. U.S. inbound visits fell ~5.5% in 2025 to about 68.3 million, led by a pullback from Canada, and are forecast to rebound ~3.4% to ~70.6 million in 2026; a return to the 2019 peak (~79 million) is not expected until roughly 2029 [27]. That soft-2025-into-rebound-2026 setup frames near-term demand for the city-tour operators most exposed to foreign visitors.

7. Regulation

Regulation is fragmented across federal, state, and local authorities, and splits cleanly by mode:

• Tourist railroads answer to the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), part of the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), under Title 49 of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) — track and equipment standards, passenger-car rules, operating rules, and locomotive-engineer certification (Part 240). Historic equipment gets some relief: cars built before 1946 are exempt from certain rules, and operators can seek waivers for non-compliant historic equipment. Steam boilers carry their own inspection regime (49 CFR Part 230) [22]. Lines sharing track with common carriers can also touch Surface Transportation Board jurisdiction.
• Sightseeing buses and trolleys fall under the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) — USDOT operating authority, commercial-driver licensing with a passenger endorsement, hours-of-service limits, vehicle inspection and maintenance, and minimum insurance [23] — plus state utility-commission/DOT permits, local curbside and loading rules, and accessibility requirements under the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) (Title III public accommodations and transportation) [24]. In California and other states, diesel-emissions rules (e.g., the California Air Resources Board) add cost.
• Horse-drawn carriages are governed almost entirely at the local level — city ordinances on routes, hours, heat/cold suspensions, licensing, and welfare inspections — and face the industry's sharpest regulatory and reputational risk. New York City has an active push to ban or phase out carriage horses ("Ryder's Law"), amplified by 2025–26 street incidents and support from the mayor and City Council leadership, with electric-carriage replacements proposed [26]. Similar pressure recurs in other carriage cities. For an owner, this is an existential, not incremental, risk.
• Land access — national- and state-park concessions and permits. The National Park Service (NPS) requires a Commercial Use Authorization (CUA) for many paid, road-based commercial tours on park lands, and separate concession contracts for on-site operators like the Grand Canyon Railway [25]. Right-of-way leases matter for rail. These permits and concessions are a quiet but decisive dependency for the marquee operators — and can be shortened, rebid, repriced, or revoked.

8. Competitive dynamics and consolidation

The industry is structurally fragmented and unconcentrated. Federal concentration data for 2022 show the four largest firms holding only 20.3% of receipts, the top 8 about 30.6%, the top 20 about 48.3%, and even the top 50 firms just 66.1%. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI, a standard 0–10,000 concentration gauge) sits at just 199.8 — far below the 1,000 mark the U.S. Department of Justice uses to define an unconcentrated market [3][6].

Two things are true at once. Nationally, no one is dominant. But locally, individual operators often enjoy near-monopolies on a unique route or asset — one narrow-gauge line into a canyon, one licensed trolley loop, one permitted carriage stand at a landmark. The real competition is for the tourist's time and dollar: a sightseeing bus competes less with another bus company than with the water tour, the aerial tram, the museum, the free walking tour, and rideshare-plus-a-map.

Competitive advantage usually comes from exclusive or hard-to-replicate routes and permits, recognizable brands and strong reviews, hotel/attraction/cruise/online distribution relationships, high vehicle or train utilization, and a clean safety record. Consolidation happens at the top and thins out fast: the visible roll-ups are private-equity and infrastructure platforms (Big Bus under Exponent [8]; scenic excursion trains bundled into Patriot Rail's short-line portfolio under an infrastructure fund [12]), private hospitality groups (Xanterra, Noble House [14][15]), and franchise networks (Gray Line, CitySightseeing) that give small operators a brand without merging ownership. M&A is most plausible where a buyer can centralize ticketing and marketing and improve fleet purchasing while keeping local route knowledge; it is harder where permits are city-specific and assets old or unique. Barriers to entry are asset- and permit-based (rolling stock, right-of-way, concession contracts, city licenses) rather than about national scale — which is exactly why the long tail of small and nonprofit operators persists.

9. Risks

• Cyclicality. Discretionary travel spend falls in downturns; the COVID-19 shutdown was near-total for this industry, and recovery was uneven.
• Seasonality and weather/climate. A fixed-cost base meets a short, weather-dependent selling season; wildfire smoke, extreme heat, storms, and shifting foliage add downside.
• Inbound-travel and FX sensitivity. City-tour operators are exposed to the 2025 inbound slump and to visa/geopolitical/dollar swings [27].
• Safety and liability. A serious derailment, bus crash, or passenger/guide incident brings litigation, regulatory action, insurance spikes, and reputational damage — and can shutter a small operator [23].
• Cost inflation. Labor shortages, fuel, insurance, and the maintenance of aging historic equipment all press on thin margins [7].
• Regulatory and reputational shocks. Horse-carriage bans are an outright existential threat to that segment [26]; diesel-emissions rules raise bus costs; permits and concessions can be revoked, rebid, or repriced [25].
• Distribution dependence. Online travel agencies and hotel channels can control customer acquisition, ranking, data, and commissions — squeezing operators that don't own their demand.
• Single-asset concentration and catastrophe. Many operators live or die on one route or one irreplaceable locomotive; a wrecked historic engine or a wildfire tied to a steam train (the Durango & Silverton faced major litigation over the 2018 "416 Fire") can be ruinous.
• Classification and public-market mismatch. Federal totals miss nonemployers, government operations, and tours embedded in broader attraction businesses [5]; and public marketplace stocks can benefit from bookings without owning the fleet or capturing the operator's gross ticket revenue.

10. How to invest, and the outlook

Public-market route — indirect only. There is no U.S.-listed pure play. The most direct listed proxy is distribution: Tripadvisor (via Viator) is the cleanest, with Booking Holdings, Expedia, and Airbnb offering broader travel-market exposure in which sightseeing is a small slice [18][19][20][21]. Judge these on experience-booking growth, take rates/commissions, customer-acquisition cost, and segment profitability — not consolidated company metrics. Do not treat diversified theme-park or lodging names (CMCSA, DIS, FUN) as comparables; their in-park transport is incidental and classified elsewhere. If you want listed exposure to the underlying tourism tailwind, broad travel/leisure equities are the honest vehicle — but that is a different bet.

Private-market routes — where the industry actually lives:

• Own and operate. Most of this sector is classic lower-middle-market and Main Street M&A — trolley companies, carriage operators, small scenic railroads, all comfortably inside the SBA's $20.5 million "small" threshold [4]. Local-monopoly economics on a unique route can be attractive; seasonality and asset intensity are the catch.
• Build a roll-up. Combine regional trolleys, buses, or scenic railways and centralize ticketing, marketing, and fleet purchasing while keeping local route knowledge.
• Franchise in. Gray Line or CitySightseeing offer a brand and playbook without a merger [11].
• Back a platform. Private-equity and infrastructure funds (Big Bus, Patriot Rail's excursion lines) are the institutional way in — usually as a small experiential slice of a larger transport or hospitality thesis [8][12].
• Finance the assets or the rails-adjacent infrastructure (vehicles, depots, ticketing and distribution tech) rather than operating the vehicles yourself.
• Nonprofit stewardship. A large share of scenic railroading is 501(c)(3) heritage operations funded by fares, donations, and volunteers — a mission, not a return-seeking asset [16].

Private diligence should center on normalized cash flow after maintenance spending, permit duration and renewal risk, route exclusivity, load factor, direct-booking share, reseller commissions, fleet age, insurance claims, labor availability, and accessibility/emissions requirements.

Outlook (forward-looking judgment). Constructive but selective. The near-term demand setup is favorable: the 2026 event calendar (World Cup, America250, Route 66 centennial) plus a projected ~3.4% inbound rebound should make 2026 better than 2025 for tourism-exposed operators, even though full inbound recovery to 2019 levels isn't expected until roughly 2029 [27]. Domestic road-trip and "experiences" demand looks structurally resilient, and the industry's low national concentration leaves room for professionalization and consolidation. Against that, the persistent headwinds — labor, insurance, and fuel costs, tightening horse-carriage regulation, distribution dependence, and reliance on aging historic equipment — are unlikely to ease. Expect the shape to hold: incremental consolidation by infrastructure and hospitality platforms at the top, a durable long tail of small, seasonal, and nonprofit operators below, and no arrival of a clean public vehicle. This stays a private, local, operator's industry — where the best returns favor businesses with exclusive route rights, differentiated experiences, direct customer relationships, disciplined capital spending, and excellent safety records.

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Sources

1. U.S. Census Bureau, "2022 NAICS Definition — 487110 Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation, Land" (definition plus adjacent codes: 487210 Water, 487990 Other/aerial, 485510 Charter Bus, 485210 Interurban, 713990 Pack trains, 713110 Amusement Parks), 2022. https://www.census.gov/naics/?details=487110&input=487110&year=2022
2. U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns (CBP): 2023, NAICS 487110 (establishments 727; employees 9,244; annual payroll $422.957M; Q1 payroll $91.051M), 2025. https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/2023/econ/cbp/2023-cbp.html
3. U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 Economic Census — Establishment and Firm Size / Concentration, NAICS 487110 (firms 598; receipts $1.226946B; CR4 20.3%, CR8 30.6%, CR20 48.3%, CR50 66.1%; HHI 199.8), 2025. https://api.census.gov/data/2022/ecnsize/groups/EC2200SIZECONCEN.html
4. U.S. Small Business Administration, "Table of Small Business Size Standards," NAICS 487110 ($20.5 million in average annual receipts), 2023. https://www.sba.gov/document/support-table-size-standards
5. U.S. Census Bureau, Economic Census program overview / coverage (CBP covers paid-employee firms; Economic Census excludes most government and nonemployer establishments). https://www.census.gov/econ/overview/mu0000.html
6. U.S. Department of Justice, Antitrust Division, "Herfindahl-Hirschman Index" (unconcentrated markets described as below HHI 1,000), 2023. https://www.justice.gov/atr/herfindahl-hirschman-index
7. IBISWorld, "Sightseeing Transportation in the US — Market Size / Industry Analysis," 2025 (sector revenue ~$6.88B, ~2,811 businesses, ~9.7% profit margin; land+water+air combined). https://www.ibisworld.com/united-states/market-research-reports/sightseeing-transportation-industry/
8. Exponent Private Equity, "Big Bus Tours" (current portfolio company; acquired 2015), 2026. https://www.exponentpe.com/our-portfolio/big-bus-tours
9. Wikipedia, "Big Bus Tours" (~28 cities/~18 countries, ~444 buses; Merlin Entertainments minority stake), 2026. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bus_Tours
10. Historic Tours of America / Old Town Trolley Tours, "Our Company" (9 U.S. cities; 2M+ guests/year), 2026. https://www.trolleytours.com/our-company
11. Gray Line Worldwide, "About / Terms and Conditions" (brand owned and licensed centrally; independent local licensees; Gray Line New York since 1926), 2026. https://www.grayline.com/legal/terms-conditions/
12. Igneo Infrastructure Partners / First Sentier Investors, "Patriot Rail" (30+ short-line freight railroads plus scenic excursion trains: Blue Ridge Scenic, Hobo & Winnipesaukee Scenic, Granite State Scenic), 2023. https://www.igneoip.com/usa/en/institutional/our-offering/assets/patriot-rail.html
13. American Heritage Railways, "Who We Are," and Durango & Silverton Narrow Gauge Railroad, "FAQ" (principals Allen and Carol Harper; also Great Smoky Mountains Railroad), 2026. https://www.americanheritagerailways.com/corporate-family/; https://durangotrain.com/faqs/
14. Grand Canyon Railway & Hotel / Xanterra Travel Collection, "Historical Timeline / Corporate Profile" (Xanterra ownership), 2026. https://www.thetrain.com/press-kit/historical-timeline/
15. Napa Valley Wine Train / Noble House Hotels & Resorts (acquired with Brooks Street, 2015). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Napa_Valley_Wine_Train; https://www.noblehousehotels.com/about/awards-press/nhhr-announces-purchase-of-the-napa-valley-wine-train/
16. Wikipedia, "List of heritage railroads in the United States" (nonprofit 501(c)(3)/volunteer operators, e.g., Cuyahoga Valley Scenic, Oregon Coast Scenic, Boone & Scenic Valley), 2026. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_heritage_railroads_in_the_United_States
17. Cumbres & Toltec Scenic Railroad, "About Us" (jointly owned by the states of Colorado and New Mexico), 2026. https://cumbrestoltec.com/about-us/
18. Tripadvisor, Inc., Form 10-K for fiscal year 2025 (Viator marketplace for tours/activities/attractions), filed 2026. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1526520/000119312526051281/trip-20251231.htm
19. Booking Holdings Inc., Form 10-K for fiscal year 2025 (Booking.com/Agoda attraction tickets and reservations), filed 2026. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1075531/000107553126000009/bkng-20251231.htm
20. Expedia Group, Inc., Form 10-K for fiscal year 2025 (activities/experiences alongside lodging, air, cars, cruises), filed 2026. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000008/expe-20251231.htm
21. Airbnb, Inc., Form 10-K for fiscal year 2025 (experiences and services), filed 2026. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1559720/000155972026000004/abnb-20251231.htm
22. U.S. Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), "Railroad Safety" and tourist/excursion guidance (49 CFR; engineer certification Part 240; steam boiler inspection Part 230; pre-1946 passenger-car exemptions and historic-equipment waivers), 2026. https://railroads.dot.gov/railroad-safety
23. Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), "Guidelines and Driver Qualifications for Motor Carriers of Passengers" (Parts 390–391; driver qualifications, hours of service, inspection/maintenance). https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/safety/passenger-safety/guidelines-and-driver-qualifications-motor-carriers-passengers-parts-390-391
24. U.S. Department of Justice, ADA Title III — "Businesses That Are Open to the Public" (equal access, reasonable modifications, accessible transportation), 2026. https://www.ada.gov/topics/title-iii/
25. National Park Service, "Road-Based Commercial Tour Commercial Use Authorizations (CUAs)" (permit requirements for paid tours on park lands; on-site operators also require concession contracts), 2026. https://www.nps.gov/subjects/cua/road-based-commercial-tour-cuas.htm
26. Office of the Mayor of New York City, "Mayor calls on City Council to ban horse-drawn carriages," 2025; City & State New York, "A brief history of New York City's horse carriage controversy," 2026; PETA, "Ryder's Law," 2026. https://www.nyc.gov/mayors-office/news/2025/09/mayor-adams-calls-on-city-council-to-ban-horse-drawn-carriages--; https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2026/07/brief-history-new-york-citys-neverending-horse-carriage-controversy/414767/
27. U.S. Travel Association, "U.S. Travel Forecast," 2026, and U.S. Dept. of Commerce / International Trade Administration, "National Travel and Tourism Forecasts" (total travel spending ~$1.37T in 2026 / ~$1.42T in 2027 in 2025 dollars; domestic leisure ~$909B in 2026; inbound 68.3M in 2025 (−5.5%) rebounding to ~70.6M in 2026 (+3.4%), 2019 peak ~79M not regained until ~2029; World Cup / America250 / Route 66 centennial as 2026 drivers). https://www.ustravel.org/research/travel-forecasts; https://www.trade.gov/travel-and-tourism-forecasts