Geothermal Electric Power Generation in the United States

Histometrics industry primer — NAICS 2022 code 221116

This industry covers companies whose main business is running geothermal power plants — using heat from inside the Earth to make electricity. The primer is written for both public-market and private investors. Core industry figures are our own ingested U.S. Census statistics; other numbers carry inline citations to the Sources list at the end. North American Industry Classification System = NAICS.

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1. Overview

Geothermal power plants tap naturally hot underground water and steam — or, in newer systems, engineered hot rock — to spin turbines and generate electricity around the clock. It is a tiny but distinctive corner of the U.S. power sector: about 0.4% of the nation's electricity [7] and roughly $1.1 billion of annual business revenue [2]. Yet it does something wind and solar cannot — it runs day and night, in any weather. That "clean firm" quality is why utilities, states, and data-center operators pay a premium for it.

For a public-market investor, the choices are narrow: one mature pure-play (Ormat Technologies), one newly public next-generation developer (Fervo Energy), and two giants where geothermal is a rounding error (Constellation Energy and Berkshire Hathaway). For a private investor — an infrastructure fund, a direct owner-operator, or a public-private partnership — the industry is a classic contracted-cash-flow business: buy an operating plant with a long sales contract, finance a plant expansion, purchase tax credits, or take venture-style risk on the emerging drilling technology. This primer covers both routes.

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2. What it is and how it's structured

In scope (221116): establishments whose primary activity is operating geothermal electric power generation facilities — producing electricity delivered to the transmission or distribution grid [1]. The economic unit is the establishment (a single operating location), not the whole corporate group, so one company with plants in three states counts as several establishments [1].

What it excludes. 221116 is one of eight sibling electricity-generation codes; the others are separate industries [1]:

It also excludes the wires business (221121 transmission, 221122 distribution) and — importantly for investors — three things people confuse with geothermal power:

• Geothermal heat pumps (ground-source heating and cooling for buildings) are installed under construction/HVAC codes (238220), not here. They move heat; they do not generate electricity.
• Geothermal district heating (piping hot water to buildings) is a thermal business, not power generation.
• Turbine and binary-cycle equipment manufacturing — which a vertically integrated player like Ormat also does — sits in manufacturing (333611), not utilities.

Ownership mix. Unlike nuclear or the old coal fleet, U.S. geothermal is overwhelmingly independent power, not utility rate-base. In 2024, independent power producers (IPPs — companies that own generation and sell it wholesale rather than to their own captive customers) generated 94.1% of geothermal electricity; traditional electric utilities generated just 5.9% [6]. But "independent" does not mean "merchant": nearly all output is sold under long-term contracts (see §5). The owners break down roughly as:

• Listed companies: Constellation Energy (via its Calpine acquisition) and Ormat Technologies own the largest fleets; Berkshire Hathaway holds the Salton Sea plants inside its energy arm.
• Private / infrastructure: independents such as Cyrq Energy, Terra-Gen, and EnergySource, plus infrastructure-fund-owned complexes like Coso (~135 MW) [23].
• Public power / municipal: the Northern California Power Agency (NCPA), a municipal joint-action agency, owns ~165 MW at The Geysers (Geothermal No. 1 at 110 MW and No. 2 at ~55 MW) [19]. Public-power utilities and California community-choice aggregators (CCAs — government-chartered local power buyers) are also major offtakers.
• Federal government: essentially no plant ownership — but the federal government is the dominant landlord. Most Western resources sit on land leased from the Bureau of Land Management (BLM); 51 plants operate on BLM land [8].
• Venture-backed: the enhanced-geothermal insurgents — Fervo (now public), Sage Geosystems, XGS Energy — funded by venture capital and, increasingly, data-center contracts.

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3. How big it is

Two lenses matter, and they don't fully overlap — for a reason worth understanding.

Business statistics (our ground-truth Census figures). These count employer businesses classified in 221116:

A newer Census survey put 2023 revenue slightly higher, near $1.18 billion [3]. Either way, this is a small, capital-heavy, labor-light industry: revenue per employee is very high (roughly $730,000) because a handful of staff run a plant worth hundreds of millions of dollars [2][3]. Note the size standard: because the whole industry employs only ~1,565 people across 22 firms, almost every individual geothermal operator qualifies as a "small business" (250-employee threshold) for federal purposes even though its plants are enormously capital-intensive [4].

This is a highly concentrated industry. Our Census concentration data show the top four firms earn 83.6% of revenue (the four-firm concentration ratio, CR4), the top eight earn 97.7%, and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI — a standard 0–10,000 concentration score) is 2,055 — above the 1,800 line that federal merger guidelines call "highly concentrated" [5]. Energy-industry data tell the same story: Ormat and Calpine (now Constellation) together held about 69% of capacity and 61% of operating plants in 2024 [8].

Physical fleet (the more current gauge). For a plant-level view, use the energy data:

• Installed capacity: ~3,969 megawatts (MW) across 99 plants in 2024, up ~8% from 3,673 MW in 2020 (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, NREL); the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) counts 4,002 MW across 163 generators on a slightly different basis [6][8]. The U.S. is the world's largest geothermal power market by installed capacity [8].
• Net generation: 15.4 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024 — essentially flat-to-declining versus 16.4 TWh in 2023, as output at some legacy fields slowly declines even while capacity creeps up [6].
• Capacity factor — the share of maximum possible output a plant actually delivers — is geothermal's signature strength. The national fleet has historically run near 76% (2018), and well-managed portfolios such as Ormat's ran at ~84% in 2024 — far above wind or solar, because geothermal is firm and dispatchable rather than weather-dependent [8][11].

Why the two lenses differ — and the undercount. The 48 business establishments understate the 99 physical plants because an establishment is a business location, not a power plant, and several owner types fall outside the employer-business census entirely: municipally owned plants (NCPA's), development companies with no operating payroll, and plants classified under a diversified parent's main industry. Revenue is only mildly undercounted, though — 15.4 TWh sold at roughly $80/MWh is about $1.2 billion of energy value, close to the Census receipts figure — but the establishment and employment counts are the larger gap [2][3][6].

Geography. This is a Western industry. California and Nevada produced 93.5% of U.S. geothermal electricity in 2024 [6]:

Geothermal supplies about 5% of California's and roughly 9% of Nevada's in-state electricity [7].

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4. The investable universe

Pure public plays are scarce. Only one company is a true geothermal pure-play (Ormat); a second (Fervo) is a pre-revenue technology bet that only went public in 2026; the other two listings bury geothermal inside vast portfolios.

Public companies (market data as of mid-July 2026; refresh before acting):

Two notes for public investors. First, Ormat trades like a growth-and-scarcity asset, not an income stock: at a mid-July 2026 price near $105, its trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was ~50× and its enterprise-value-to-EBITDA multiple ~18×, with a dividend yield under 0.5% [12]. Second, Fervo's ~$7.3 billion market value rests almost entirely on future projects — trailing revenue is near zero and free cash flow was roughly –$591 million [14]. There is no U.S.-listed geothermal-only exchange-traded fund (ETF); broad clean-energy funds hold Ormat as a minor weight [14].

Major private and other owners:

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5. How the money works

Geothermal is capital-heavy, operating-light, and fuel-free: nearly all the cost is upfront drilling and the power block, and once built there is no fuel to buy. That shapes every part of the economics.

The revenue engine: long-term contracts. Most plants sell power under 15-to-30-year power purchase agreements (PPAs) — long fixed-price contracts — with utilities, community-choice buyers, or corporate customers. Because the output is firm, it commands a premium over intermittent renewables. Recent conventional and next-generation PPAs have been signed around $70–$110 per megawatt-hour (MWh) — for example, Fervo's Corsac Station at $107/MWh — and Ormat reported new U.S. contracts above $100/MWh, up from roughly $60–$80/MWh in the prior five years [8][11]. Plants often earn extra value for capacity/reliability and for renewable energy certificates (RECs) on top of the energy price [11].

A special federal status. Under the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA), a small-power "qualifying facility" (QF) is normally capped at 80 MW — but geothermal QFs qualify at any size [20]. Utilities must buy their output at "avoided cost," a rate set by state public utility commissions (PUCs) [20]. This underwrote the 1980s buildout and still shapes contracting today.

The regulated-utility exception. Where a utility owns a geothermal plant directly (the ~6% minority), it earns under the standard rate-base formula: revenue requirement = operating costs + depreciation + taxes + (rate base × allowed return). The allowed return on equity (ROE) is set by the state commission — the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) set 2026–2028 authorized ROEs just under 10% for the state's big utilities [21]. A utility that merely buys geothermal under a PPA earns no equity return on the energy cost; it passes prudent purchased-power costs through to ratepayers [21].

The cost curve. Overnight capital cost runs from about $4,350 per kilowatt (kW) at the hottest, most productive hydrothermal sites to well above $9,000–$19,000/kW at cooler or deeper resources (NREL) [9]; a 50-MW expansion at an existing field runs around $3,963/kW (EIA) [10]. On a levelized basis, high-temperature "flash" plants come in around $63–$74/MWh and lower-temperature "binary" plants around $90–$110/MWh — above the cheapest wind and solar, but competitive once firmness is valued [8]. The dominant risk is front-loaded: exploration and drilling can be more than half of a new greenfield project's cost, and wells can come up dry before the project is financeable [10].

Tax credits are decisive for returns. Geothermal qualifies for the federal clean-electricity credits that replaced the old technology-specific ones under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA): the Section 48E investment tax credit (ITC) and the Section 45Y production tax credit (PTC) — a 30% base credit when wage and apprenticeship rules are met, plus adders for domestic content and "energy communities" [23]. A project picks one or the other. Crucially, when the 2025 federal budget law curtailed many clean-energy credits, geothermal was preserved — it keeps the full credit for projects that begin construction through roughly 2033–2034, phasing down thereafter [24]. Ormat has "safe-harbored" PTC eligibility for its projects through 2028 [11]. Credits can also be sold for cash to other investors under IRA transferability (Section 6418), and qualifying property gets accelerated (five-year) depreciation — both important levers for private and tax-equity investors [23].

What it looks like at a real operator (Ormat, FY2024): revenue $879.7 million, net income $123.7 million, adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) $550.5 million — a ~63% EBITDA margin, the hallmark of a fuel-free, contracted asset base — and a $0.12 quarterly dividend [11].

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6. What drives demand

1. "Clean firm" mandates. California's clean-electricity law (Senate Bill 100, 100% clean power by 2045) and the CPUC's 2021 order requiring 1,000 MW of non-weather-dependent, non-battery, zero-emission capacity created a pull built specifically for geothermal [21]. A 2026 CPUC order added 6,000 MW of new clean/storage capacity, at least a quarter of it clean-firm or long-duration [21].
2. State renewable and clean-energy standards across the West and Hawaii — renewable portfolio standards (RPS) and clean energy standards (CES).
3. Data centers wanting 24/7 carbon-free power — the newest and most powerful driver. Google contracted 115 MW of enhanced geothermal via NV Energy with Fervo; Meta signed 150 MW with Sage Geosystems and 150 MW with XGS Energy [22]. These corporate deals are effectively financing the commercialization of new geothermal technology.
4. Baseload replacement as coal retires and buyers seek firm, non-emitting supply.
5. Mineral co-products — the Salton Sea brines carry lithium, and direct lithium extraction (DLE) could add a second revenue stream; Berkshire Hathaway Energy and Occidental formed a joint venture to test it [18]. Treat lithium as option value until proven at commercial scale, not as a rescue for weak power economics.

Since 2021 the industry has signed 27 PPAs totaling 1,661 MW, 61% of it next-generation technology, and drawn roughly $1.5 billion of private capital into next-generation developers [8]. But a signed PPA is not a built plant — it must still clear resource confirmation, permitting, interconnection, financing, and construction.

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7. Regulation

Geothermal answers to federal energy regulators, federal land managers, and state utility commissions — a heavier permitting load than solar or wind because it requires subsurface drilling, often on public land.

• Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC): regulates wholesale power sales, market-based rate authority, and interconnection, and administers PURPA qualifying-facility status (geothermal qualifies at any size; projects of 1 MW or more generally file Form 556) [20].
• State public utility commissions (PUCs) — the CPUC in California, the Public Utilities Commission of Nevada in Nevada — are often the decisive commercial regulators: they set avoided-cost rates, approve utility PPAs and cost recovery, set allowed ROEs, and issue the procurement mandates that create demand [21].
• Bureau of Land Management (BLM): the dominant landlord. Most Western geothermal is on federal land leased under the Geothermal Steam Act; 51 plants operate on BLM land, and public-land projects represent ~2,600 MW of capacity [8]. Royalties run about 1%–2.5% of gross proceeds in the first ten years and 2%–5% thereafter [26]. Leasing, review under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), and drilling permits are a principal schedule risk.
• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): regulates injection/disposal wells under the Class V Underground Injection Control (UIC) program (protecting drinking water), plus hydrogen sulfide (H₂S) emissions at steam fields and handling of brine constituents such as arsenic and boron [27].
• U.S. Geological Survey (USGS): runs the national resource assessment and leads on induced-seismicity guidance [28].
• Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC): not applicable — geothermal plants are not nuclear facilities (that is the adjacent code, 221113).

The regulatory cost driver is mainly time: multi-year leasing and permitting, interconnection queues, and environmental review are the biggest non-drilling schedule risks.

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8. Competitive dynamics and consolidation

The federal concentration data (HHI ~2,055; top four firms = 83.6% of revenue [5]) match the on-the-ground reality: a small oligopoly of incumbents at legacy fields, now consolidating further, with a wave of technology insurgents from below.

• Consolidation is accelerating. Constellation's ~$26.6 billion acquisition of Calpine (closed January 2026) folded the world's largest geothermal complex into a listed power giant chasing data-center load [15]. Ormat's January 2024 purchase of Enel Green Power North America's geothermal and solar assets, and its earlier ~$110 million acquisition of U.S. Geothermal (2018), further concentrated the field [11].
• Incumbent oligopoly at legacy fields: Constellation (The Geysers), Berkshire/BHE (Salton Sea), and Ormat (Nevada) hold high barriers — proven resource, existing wells, interconnection, and long-dated PPAs [8].
• Technology disruption from below. Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) entrants — Fervo, Sage, XGS — use oil-and-gas horizontal drilling and fracturing to engineer reservoirs outside the naturally permeable Western fields, potentially breaking the industry's geographic concentration. Since 2021, 12 next-generation PPAs totaling ~1,007 MW have been signed, including projects in Texas and New Mexico, east of the traditional resource base [8].
• Oil & gas crossover: shale-drilling expertise and balance sheets are migrating into EGS — a competitive threat and a capital tailwind at once.

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9. Risks

• Resource and geologic risk. Exploration wells can fail; producing fields decline and need reinjection and make-up wells. Flat-to-declining national output despite rising capacity shows this in the aggregate [6].
• High, front-loaded capital and long lead times (5–10 years from exploration to operation), with financing risk before the resource is confirmed [10].
• Geographic concentration. ~93% of output in California and Nevada exposes the industry to two states' policy, drought, and seismic conditions [6].
• EGS execution risk. The ~1,007 MW next-generation pipeline is largely unbuilt; a successful pilot does not prove repeatable 100–500 MW performance or multi-decade reservoir life [8].
• Contract and counterparty risk. Legacy 1980s-era PPAs are rolling off and must be repriced; revenue can concentrate in a few buyers (Ormat's largest customers — the Southern California Public Power Authority, NV Energy, and Kenya Power — were 17.8%, 13.8%, and 11.9% of company revenue in 2025) [11].
• Policy and tax-credit risk. Returns lean on the ITC/PTC; geothermal was spared in 2025, but future changes and qualification errors (wage, domestic-content, construction-start, recapture) matter [24].
• Permitting, interconnection, and social license. Federal review and grid queues can strand a proven resource for years.
• Environmental and seismicity risk. Induced seismicity is a live concern for EGS after the Basel and Pohang precedents; H₂S emissions and brine/water management add cost [27][28].
• Interest-rate sensitivity. As a capital-intensive, yield-oriented asset class, valuations move with the cost of debt.
• Lithium overvaluation. Do not capitalize an unproven brine co-product before commercial recovery is demonstrated.

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10. How to invest and the outlook

Two ways in.

Public markets. Ormat (ORA) is the only clean way to own the theme — a contracted, high-margin operator, but priced as growth (P/E ~50×, yield <0.5%), not income [11][12]. Fervo (FRVO), public since its May 2026 initial public offering (80.5 million shares at $27, ~$2.2 billion raised), is the most direct next-generation bet but is a construction-and-technology story with near-zero current revenue and heavy cash burn [13][14]. Constellation (CEG) and Berkshire (BRK) offer only diluted exposure. There is no geothermal-only ETF.

Private markets. This is where most of the industry actually trades. Geothermal plants are textbook contracted infrastructure — long PPAs, high capacity factor, inflation-escalated tariffs — which is why infrastructure funds and private equity (Energy Capital Partners was Calpine's former owner) are natural owners [15]. The lower-risk entries are operating-asset acquisitions (a proven field with a long PPA and a creditworthy buyer), brownfield repowering and expansion, and non-recourse project debt. Higher on the risk curve sit development equity (staged against drilling and permitting milestones) and early EGS venture equity. Two credit-based channels run alongside: tax-credit purchases (buying transferable 45Y/48E credits at a discount) and public-private structures with municipalities and public-power agencies (project companies, energy-service contracts, tax-exempt or taxable project debt). Data-center operators signing 15-year PPAs are effectively a private-capital channel that de-risks new development [22].

Near-term drivers to watch. Fervo's Cape Station (Utah) — the world's largest EGS project, 500 MW contracted — targets first power in late 2026 and ~100 MW by early 2027, with a 400 MW second phase in 2028 [13]. Whether EGS drilling costs fall toward the ~$3,000/kW and $45/MWh targets is the swing factor: if it works, geothermal graduates from a 0.4% niche to a meaningful clean-firm category; if it stalls, the industry stays a ~4 GW Western niche.

The long-run ambition, kept in perspective. The Department of Energy's GeoVision study modeled ~60 GW of U.S. geothermal by 2050, and later analysis stretched to ~90 GW — a large multiple of today's ~4 GW — while the Enhanced Geothermal Shot targets a 90% cost cut to $45/MWh by 2035 [25]. These are policy scenarios, not forecasts. No official growth rate exists for NAICS 221116 revenue, so we do not state one. The credible outlook is conditional: a small, firm, slow-growing incumbent business with a genuine technology option embedded in it — and unusually durable political support, since geothermal survived the 2025 credit rollback and carries bipartisan permitting and critical-minerals interest.

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Sources

1. U.S. Census Bureau, "2022 NAICS: 221116 — Geothermal Electric Power Generation" (scope; adjacent codes). https://www.census.gov/naics/?details=221116&input=221116&year=2022
2. U.S. Census Bureau, "2022 Economic Census, EC2200BASIC — Geothermal Electric Power Generation," 2024 (receipts $1,144,273 thousand; 22 employer firms). Histometrics ingested ground-truth statistic. https://data.census.gov/table/ECNBASIC2022.EC2200BASIC
3. U.S. Census Bureau, 2023 County Business Patterns / Annual Integrated Economic Survey, NAICS 221116 (48 establishments; 1,565 employees; annual payroll $199,277 thousand; ~$1.18 billion revenue). Histometrics ingested ground-truth statistic. https://data.census.gov/table/CBP2023.CB2300CBP
4. U.S. Small Business Administration, "Table of Small Business Size Standards" (250-employee standard for 221116). Histometrics ingested ground-truth statistic. https://www.sba.gov/document/support-table-size-standards
5. U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 Economic Census — Concentration statistics, NAICS 221116 (CR4 83.6%; CR8 97.7%; CR50 100%; HHI 2,055.1). Histometrics ingested ground-truth statistic. https://data.census.gov/
6. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Electric Power Annual," Tables 3.20 / 4.3, 2024 data (15.407 TWh net generation; 4,002 MW capacity; state and IPP/utility shares). https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/
7. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Geothermal Explained: Use of Geothermal Energy," 2025 (0.4% of U.S. generation; state shares). https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/geothermal/use-of-geothermal-energy.php
8. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) & Geothermal Rising, "2025 U.S. Geothermal Power Production and District Heating Market Report," 2026 (3,969 MW / 99 plants; CA/NV shares; Ormat + Calpine ~69% capacity; 51 BLM plants; 27 PPAs / 1,661 MW and 12 EGS PPAs / 1,007 MW since 2021; LCOE ranges; recent PPA prices). https://www.nrel.gov/geothermal/
9. NREL, "2024 Annual Technology Baseline: Geothermal" (overnight capital ~$4,350/kW hot to ~$19,000/kW low-temp, 2022$). https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024/geothermal
10. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Capital Cost and Performance Characteristics for Utility-Scale Electric Power Generating Technologies," AEO 2025 ($3,963/kW brownfield binary; exploration/drilling >50% of greenfield cost; fixed O&M ~$150.60/kW-yr). https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/powerplants/capitalcost/
11. Ormat Technologies, Form 10-K and FY2024/FY2025 results (FY2024 revenue $879.7M, net income $123.7M, adjusted EBITDA $550.5M; $0.12 quarterly dividend; ~84% capacity factor; PPA pricing; customer concentration; PTC safe-harbor through 2028). https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001296445
12. Stock Analysis, "Ormat Technologies Statistics," market data as of July 17, 2026 (market cap ~$6.4B; P/E ~50×; EV/EBITDA ~18×; dividend yield ~0.5%). https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ora/statistics/
13. Fervo Energy, "First-Quarter 2026 Results" and IPO disclosures (May 2026 IPO: 80.5M shares at $27, ~$2.2B gross; 658 MW binding PPAs; Cape Station Phase I 100 MW late 2026 / Phase II 400 MW 2028; $421M non-recourse Phase I financing). https://ir.fervoenergy.com/
14. Stock Analysis, "Fervo Energy Statistics," market data as of July 17, 2026 (market cap ~$7.3B; trailing revenue ~$0.2M; free cash flow ~–$591M); First Trust QCLN holdings. https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/frvo/statistics/
15. Constellation Energy, "Constellation Completes Calpine Transaction," January 2026 (~$26.6B; ~55 GW combined portfolio). https://www.constellationenergy.com/newsroom.html
16. Calpine / The Geysers, "About The Geysers," 2025–2026 (13 plants; ~730 MW; world's largest geothermal complex). https://geysers.com/about/
17. BHE Renewables (Berkshire Hathaway Energy), "Geothermal Power" (10 Imperial Valley plants, ~345 MW). https://www.bherenewables.com/geothermal_power.aspx
18. Reuters, "Occidental Petroleum and Berkshire Hathaway Form JV to Extract Lithium," 2024. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/occidental-petroleum-berkshire-hathaway-form-jv-to-extract-lithium-2024-06-04/
19. California Energy Commission, "NCPA Geothermal Project No. 1 and No. 2" (110 MW + ~55 MW). https://www.energy.ca.gov/
20. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, "Qualifying Facilities" (geothermal QFs qualify at any size; Form 556; avoided cost). https://www.ferc.gov/qf
21. California Public Utilities Commission, procurement decisions and cost-of-capital orders, 2025–2026 (1,000 MW clean-firm order; 2026 6,000 MW procurement; 2026–2028 authorized ROEs). https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/
22. Meta / Canary Media / Reuters Events, data-center geothermal offtakes (Meta–Sage 150 MW; Meta–XGS 150 MW; Google–Fervo 115 MW via NV Energy). https://about.fb.com/news/2024/08/new-geothermal-energy-project-to-support-our-data-centers/
23. Internal Revenue Service, "Clean Electricity Production Credit (§45Y)" and "Investment Credit (§48E)," updated 2026; transferability (§6418); five-year cost recovery. https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/clean-electricity-production-credit
24. Canary Media / ThinkGeoEnergy, geothermal preserved in the 2025 federal budget law; §45Y/§48E begin-construction runway to ~2033–2034 then phasedown. https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/geothermal
25. U.S. Department of Energy, "GeoVision: Harnessing the Heat Beneath Our Feet" (60 GW by 2050; later ~90 GW) and "Enhanced Geothermal Shot" ($45/MWh by 2035). https://www.energy.gov/eere/geothermal/geovision
26. Bureau of Land Management, "Geothermal Energy Program," and 30 U.S.C. §1004 (royalty ranges 1%–2.5% then 2%–5%). https://www.blm.gov/programs/energy-and-minerals/geothermal-energy
27. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Class V Underground Injection Control" (geothermal injection wells; brine and H₂S handling). https://www.epa.gov/uic
28. U.S. Geological Survey, "Induced Seismicity" (monitoring and response for injection-related seismicity). https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/induced-earthquakes