Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools (U.S.) — NAICS 61131

1. Overview

NAICS 61131 is the "industry" level of American degree-granting higher education — the four-year-and-above core: institutions that grant bachelor's, master's, doctoral, and first-professional degrees (law, medicine, dentistry, business, divinity). The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is the U.S. government's standard for grouping businesses, and it nests: broad sectors (2-digit) split into subsectors (3-digit), industry groups (4-digit), industries (5-digit), and national industries (6-digit).

This 5-digit industry contains exactly one 6-digit national industry — 611310, Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools — so 61131 and 611310 are, for practical purposes, the same thing. The federal statistics are identical at both levels. For the full analysis — how the money works, the investable universe, regulation, risks, and how to invest — read the 611310 primer. This page is a short signpost that gives this level's own ground-truth numbers and explains why the two levels coincide.

The one thing worth carrying over up front: this is one of the largest service sectors in the country and one of the least "investable" in the ordinary sense, because the institutions that matter most are governments and tax-exempt nonprofits, not companies with stock. About 19.6 million students were enrolled across U.S. higher education in fall 2024, and roughly 72.6% of undergraduates attend public (state-owned) institutions.[5]

2. What's inside — the child industries and why the level equals its one child

NAICS 61131 has a single child national industry:

When a 5-digit industry contains only one 6-digit national industry, the two are definitionally coextensive — every establishment, employee, and payroll dollar counted at 61131 is the same set counted at 611310. There is no aggregation to do and no sibling industries to weigh against each other. The Census Bureau assigns the extra digit only to preserve a consistent code length, not because the 6-digit level carves out a narrower activity.

For scope and boundaries — what 611310 includes (baccalaureate-and-above teaching, stand-alone professional schools, theological seminaries) and the adjacent education codes it excludes (community colleges at 611210, trade schools at 611511–611519, training providers at 611410–611430, educational support at 611710) — see section 2 of the 611310 primer.[4]

3. How big it is

Our federal business statistics (U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns (CBP) 2023 — private-sector employers only):

These figures are identical to those for child 611310 — as expected for a single-child level. Our ground-truth file for 61131 provides no total industry revenue, enrollment, assets, capital spending, profit, or ownership shares, so none are stated from it; it also carries no separate Small Business Administration size standard at the 5-digit level (that threshold is defined at 611310, at $34.5 million in average annual receipts).[2]

The undercount caveat is essential. County Business Patterns counts private-sector establishments — private nonprofit and for-profit colleges — but excludes most government employees, businesses without an Employer Identification Number, non-employer businesses, and some complex multi-unit establishments.[3] Because public universities are government entities, the 3,989 establishments and 1.86 million employees above capture only the private slice. Since about 73% of undergraduates attend public institutions,[5] the true higher-education workforce — counting public-university faculty and staff — is closer to 4 million. Read the federal business figures as "the private slice," not the whole industry.

For the whole-industry yardsticks — roughly $700 billion of annual institutional spending,[8] more than $108 billion of academic research and development,[11] $873.7 billion of endowment wealth,[10] and about $120.8 billion of federal Title IV student aid[12] — see section 3 of the 611310 primer.

4. Investable universe (where value concentrates)

Because this level equals its one child, the entire investable map lives at 611310. In brief: there is no way to buy a public university or a marquee nonprofit (Harvard, Stanford, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have no stock). The listed pure-plays are a handful of small for-profit operators — Grand Canyon Education (NASDAQ: LOPE), Adtalem Global Education (NYSE: ATGE), Strategic Education (NASDAQ: STRA), Perdoceo Education (NASDAQ: PRDO), Phoenix Education Partners (NASDAQ: PXED), American Public Education (NASDAQ: APEI), and career/trade names — plus ed-tech platforms such as Coursera (NYSE: COUR).[23][24][25][28][26][27] Combined they are a rounding error against the sector's ~$700 billion scale. The real mass is reachable only around the colleges: university bonds, student housing, online-program and student-support services, and endowment co-investment. Full table, tickers, and private-market channels are in section 4 of the 611310 primer.

5. How the money works

Unit economics differ sharply by owner type and are covered in full at 611310. In short: the core unit is net tuition revenue per full-time-equivalent (FTE) student (sticker price minus institutional grant aid, times enrollment). Public institutions run on state appropriations plus net tuition; private nonprofits blend net tuition, endowment payout (roughly 4.5–5% of a trailing average), and gifts; research universities add federal grant funding with its indirect (facilities-and-administrative) cost recovery; and the for-profits are recurring-revenue services businesses funded up to ~90% by federal Title IV aid. See section 5 of the 611310 primer for the metrics that matter (tuition discount rate, new-student starts, persistence, completion, licensure, and regulatory aid gates).[16]

6. Demand drivers

The same forces drive the child industry and this level. The dominant structural factor is demographics — the "enrollment cliff": U.S. high-school graduates are projected to peak around 2025 and fall about 13% by 2041, hitting the Northeast and Midwest hardest.[20] Offsetting it is the wage premium — bachelor's-degree holders earned median weekly pay of about $1,543 in 2024 versus $930 for high-school-only workers, a return the New York Federal Reserve estimates near 12.5%.[17][19] Adult and employer-funded learning, international students (about 1.18 million in 2024-25), and shortages in nursing, health care, and skilled trades round out demand.[14] Full detail is in section 6 of the 611310 primer.

7. Regulation

Federal student-aid eligibility under Title IV of the Higher Education Act (HEA) is the master switch; participation requires state authorization and accreditation by a federally recognized agency.[21] Segment-specific rules bite differently: the 90/10 rule and earnings-accountability / gainful-employment tests constrain for-profits; the National Institutes of Health (NIH) indirect-cost cap fight pressures research universities; and the new tiered endowment excise tax (up to 8% under the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act) hits the wealthiest privates.[21][22][24][25] See section 7 of the 611310 primer for the full regulatory map.

8. Consolidation

The industry is consolidating from the bottom up. The total number of higher-education institutions fell about 2%, from 5,918 in 2022-23 to 5,819 in 2023-24;[6] roughly 312 degree-granting colleges closed between 2008 and 2024, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia models up to 80 closures a year in a worst-case enrollment scenario.[26] The victims are predictable: small, tuition-dependent private colleges and thin-endowment regional publics in shrinking-population regions. Nonprofit governance and accreditation make private-equity roll-ups harder here than in ordinary services, so consolidation is selective. Section 8 of the 611310 primer has the competitive-dynamics detail.

9. Risks

The risk profile is the child's risk profile: demographic decline, affordability and "is college worth it" pressure, segment-specific regulatory and funding shocks (earnings accountability, 90/10, the NIH indirect-cost dispute, the endowment tax), pervasive federal-aid dependence, international-enrollment policy risk, endowment/market risk at wealthy privates, high fixed costs, and closure/credit risk for bondholders and vendors.[12][20][21][24][25][26] See section 9 of the 611310 primer.

10. How to invest and the outlook

Because 61131 equals 611310, the routes are identical. Public-market: a narrow set of for-profit education stocks (judged on enrollment starts, persistence, completion, program-level earnings and licensure outcomes, federal-aid exposure, and free cash flow, not revenue growth alone), ed-tech platforms, and — the deepest and most stable channel — university bonds. Private-market: private equity in for-profit and international chains, private credit and revenue-bond financing, student housing (now largely private after the American Campus Communities take-private), online-program and student-support services, distressed-asset acquisitions, and endowment co-investment.

Outlook. A mature, demographically pressured, mission-driven industry that is bifurcating: the enrollment cliff will separate winners (flagships, wealthy privates, scaled online operators, applied/health-care programs) from losers (small tuition-dependent colleges), accelerating closures and mergers through the 2030s.[20][26] The durable public-market opportunities are narrow; the broader opportunity lies in the credit, real estate, and services that surround the colleges rather than the colleges themselves. Our federal file does not support a precise total-market-size or growth forecast.[1] For the complete treatment, read the 611310 primer.

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Sources

1. U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2023 (NAICS 61131 / 611310, private-sector establishments), 2025. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/cbp.html
2. U.S. Small Business Administration, Table of Small Business Size Standards (NAICS 611310, $34.5M), 2023. https://www.sba.gov/document/support-table-size-standards
3. U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns Methodology (coverage and exclusions), 2026. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/cbp/technical-documentation/methodology.html
4. U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 NAICS Manual, code 611310 definition and adjacent education-services codes. https://www.census.gov/naics/
5. Phil Hill / OnEdTech and Presidents Forum, analysis of NCES IPEDS Fall 2024 enrollment (19.6M; 72.6% public), 2026. https://presidentsforum.org/2026/01/27/what-ipeds-fall-2024-data-says-about-enrollment-and-online-learning/
6. National Center for Education Statistics, "The Total Number of Higher Education Institutions Decreases by 2 Percent" (5,819 in 2023-24), 2024. https://ies.ed.gov/learn/press-release/total-number-higher-education-institutions-decreases-2-percent
7. National Center for Education Statistics, "Postsecondary Institution Revenues" and "Expenses," Condition of Education (expenditures ~$702B in 2020-21). https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/cud/postsecondary-institution-revenue
8. NACUBO-Commonfund, 2024 Study of Endowments ($873.7B across 658; median $243M), 2025. https://www.nacubo.org/Press-Releases/2025/US-Higher-Education-Endowments-Report-10-Year-Average-Annual-Return
9. National Science Foundation NCSES, Higher Education R&D (HERD) Survey FY2023 ($108.8B). https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsf25313
10. U.S. Department of Education, Federal Student Aid, FY2024 Annual Report ($120.8B Title IV to 9.9M students). https://studentaid.gov/sites/default/files/fy2024-fsa-annual-report.pdf
11. Institute of International Education, Open Doors 2025 (1.18M international students; fall 2025 new-enrollment decline). https://www.iie.org/news/open-doors-2025-press-release/
12. NACUBO, 2024 Tuition Discounting Study (56.3% first-time / 51.4% all undergrad, 2024-25), 2025. https://www.nacubo.org/Press-Releases/2025/NACUBO-Study-Finds-Private-Colleges-and-Universities-Are-Offering-Record-Financial-Aid-to-Students
13. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Education Pays, 2024" (bachelor's $1,543/wk vs $930 for HS), 2025. https://www.bls.gov/careeroutlook/2025/data-on-display/education-pays.htm
14. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics, "Is College Still Worth It?" (return ~12.5%), 2025. https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/04/is-college-still-worth-it/
15. Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door, 11th ed. (HS graduates peak ~2025, −13% by 2041), 2024. https://www.wiche.edu/knocking/
16. U.S. Department of Education, "Financial Value Transparency and Gainful Employment" final rule (effective July 1, 2024), Federal Register, 2023. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/10/10/2023-20385/financial-value-transparency-and-gainful-employment
17. Congressional Research Service, "The 90/10 Rule Under HEA Title IV: Background and Issues," R46773. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R46773
18. National Institutes of Health, NOT-OD-25-068, indirect-cost rate cap (15%), Feb. 2025; enjoined by courts, First Circuit affirmation Jan. 2026. https://grants.nih.gov/grants/guide/notice-files/NOT-OD-25-068.html
19. Higher Ed Dive / Harvard Financial Administration, endowment excise tax under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (tiered to 8%), 2025. https://finance.harvard.edu/endowment-tax-faqs
20. BestColleges and Inside Higher Ed, college closures and mergers; Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia closure model (up to 80/year worst case), 2025. https://www.bestcolleges.com/research/closed-colleges-list-statistics-major-closures/
21. Federal Student Aid, "Institutional Eligibility," FSA Handbook 2025–2026. https://fsapartners.ed.gov/knowledge-center/fsa-handbook/2025-2026/vol2/ch1-institutional-eligibility
22. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (NASDAQ: LOPE) Form 10-K, 2025. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1434588/000110465926017047/lope-20251231x10k.htm
23. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Adtalem Global Education Inc. (NYSE: ATGE) Form 10-K, 2025. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/730464/000155837025010780/atge-20250630x10k.htm
24. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Strategic Education, Inc. (NASDAQ: STRA) Form 10-K, 2025. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1013934/000101393426000006/stra-20251231.htm
25. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Perdoceo Education Corporation (NASDAQ: PRDO) Form 10-K, 2025. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046568/000119312526059331/prdo-20251231.htm
26. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, American Public Education, Inc. (NASDAQ: APEI) Form 10-K, 2025. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1201792/000120179226000004/apei-20251231.htm
27. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Coursera, Inc. (NYSE: COUR) FY2024 report (revenue $694.7M; 168M learners). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1651562/000165156225000029/a2024annualreportdraftfina.pdf
28. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Phoenix Education Partners, Inc. (NASDAQ: PXED) Form 10-K (Apollo ~70% voting power as of Nov. 2025), 2025. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1600222/000119312525289786/pxed_10k_2025.htm